NFL odds, picks for Week 10: Advanced computer model loving Cardinals and Patriots – CBSSports.com


Every NFL team is now into the second half of the schedule. That means time is running out for some teams that have been slow out of the gates. The defending champion Eagles are just 4-4, but are favored by 6.5 points in the latest Week 10 NFL odds against the 3-5 Cowboys, another NFC East team in desperate need of a victory. Meanwhile, the Colts (-3) host the Jaguars as both sit at 3-5 and are in danger of falling out of contention in the AFC South. And in other NFL spreads, the 4-4 Falcons are favored by four points, up 1.5 from the opening line, in their road matchup against the Browns. With NFL odds already shifting and playoff positioning on the line, be sure to check out the top Week 10 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer. 

SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 10 on a strong 8-0 run. For the season, it is now 22-9 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a blistering 70-43. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 89-43 this season, again ranking in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com. Anybody who has been following it is way, way up. 

Now it has examined the latest NFL odds and spreads, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its Week 10 NFL picks are in.

One of the top Week 10 NFL picks the model loves: the Patriots (-6.5) cover in Nashville against the Titans

Plenty of familiar faces will meet up in this matchup as Titans coach Mike Vrabel takes on former coach Bill Belichick. And although Tennessee pulled off the upset in Week 9 on the road against the Cowboys, the model likes the value on the Patriots this weekend. 

Tom Brady throws for over 300 yards, according to the model, helping New England cover in almost 55 percent of simulations. There’s also plenty of value on the under (48.5) because that hits over 55 percent of the time in this battle of two defenses that are giving up fewer than 23 points per game. 

Another one of the strong Week 10 NFL predictions from the model: the Cardinals (+16.5) cover at Arrowhead Stadium against the Chiefs in the game with one of the largest NFL lines thus far in 2018.

The line opened at Kansas City -14, but has already moved 2.5 points as bettors have backed Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ prolific offense against Josh Rosen and the 2-6 Cardinals. But the model says this line has gone too far and has found value on Arizona and this inflated spread.

The Cardinals are 4-2 against the spread as underdogs this season and have only lost by more than 10 points once since Week 2. Kansas City, meanwhile, has just one victory of more than 16 points all season. The model says Arizona covers in almost 55 percent of simulations, while there’s value on the Over (49.5) as well since that hits more than 50 percent of the time. 

The model also has a strong selection for the huge Cowboys vs. Eagles showdown on “Sunday Night Football” and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to get a huge scare against a big underdog. 

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 10? And what Super Bowl contender gets a huge scare? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4, 51.5)
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-7.5, 37)
Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns (+4, 50.5)
New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals (+5, 54)
Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 51.5)
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (+6.5, 46.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 47)
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-6.5, 45)
Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs (-16.5, 49.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+10, 50)
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-10, 47.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-10, 51)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 43.5)
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 44)

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