NFL odds, picks for Week 12: Advanced computer model loves Eagles, Seahawks – CBSSports.com


The NFL’s 12th weekend will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors. The New England Patriots are 16.5-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins, the Kansas City Chiefs are 10-point favorites over the Buffalo Bills, and the Los Angeles Rams are a 2.5-point favorites over the New Orleans Saints in a game with massive postseason implications that has already seen plenty of line movement.

With so many eye-popping games and so many NFL odds on the move, you’ll want to know what SportsLine’s advanced computer model is picking. SportsLine’s Projection Model went an amazing 174-80-2 on straight-up NFL picks last season — better than all 98 experts tracked by NFLPickWatch — every single one.

SportsLine computer picks also would have won more than 96 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool Manager leagues that made straight-up NFL picks last season.

It’s fresh off a week in which it went 10-4 on straight-up picks, improving its record to a blistering 20-8 over the past two weeks. Last week, it nailed the Patriots’ (-7) win and cover against the Raiders in Mexico City and was all over Philadelphia’s road victory in Dallas.

With Week 12 here, the computer simulated every matchup 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results.

One team SportsLine’s proven model is again all-in on: the Philadelphia Eagles, who are massive 13.5-point favorites at home against the Chicago Bears. The model likes the Eagles to win by a final of 32-13 that will easily cover the spread

Philadelphia is among the Vegas favorites to win it all this year, and it continues to roll through the competition. The Eagles aren’t just winning, they’re dominating. They’ve won eight straight, and five of those victories have been by double-digits. Their average margin of victory has jumped to 26.3 points per game over the last three weeks.

The Bears, meanwhile, are the losers of three straight and will be without linebacker Leonard Floyd on Sunday.

Philly wins this game straight-up in a whopping 89 percent of simulations and covers the spread 63 percent of the time. Lock in a pick for Philadelphia in this one with a high degree of confidence.

Another team it loves: the Seattle Seahawks (-7) on the road at San Francisco. The Seahawks are fighting for their postseason lives after a tough Monday night loss to the Falcons that came down to the final play.

But they get a chance to right the ship and possibly move into a tie for first if the Rams fall to the Saints this week. The model likes Seattle to not only win, but also cover the spread handily in a 25-15 decision.

Seattle is hurting on defense with Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman out, but a weak 49ers’ offense should be a welcomed sight. The Niners are 27th in the NFL in scoring at just 17.4 points per game.

The model also is calling for one of the league’s hottest teams, a squad with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations, to experience a crushing loss this Sunday. Find out who it is over at SportsLine.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 12? Check out the NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the big Cowboys-Chargers pick’em game you should be all over, all from the model that would have won 96 percent of football pools last season, and get NFL picks from 16 experts.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)
L.A. Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (pick’em, 48)
N.Y. Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5, 45)
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-8, 38)
Carolina Panthers at N.Y. Jets (+4.5, 40)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-16.5, 48)
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 45)
Tampa Bay Bucs at Atlanta Falcons (-10, 48.5)
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (+3.5, 44)
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5, 44)
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+7, 43)
New Orleans Saints at L.A. Rams (-2.5, 53.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Arizona Cardinals (+4.5, 38)
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-5, 43.5)
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14, 41.5)
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 38)

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Posted in: NFL