NFL odds, picks for Week 14: Advanced computer model loving Redskins and Patriots – CBSSports.com


The NFL enters the final quarter of its season with several close playoff races remaining. The Chiefs continue their pursuit of home-field advantage throughout the playoffs this week against a Ravens squad that currently holds an AFC Wild Card spot at 7-5. The Chiefs are 6.5-point favorites in the latest Week 14 NFL odds, but after barely surviving a scare from the Raiders, action could continue to shift on this game throughout the week. And the Saints look to right the ship after a 13-10 loss to the Cowboys. In one of the largest NFL spreads of the week, Drew Brees and company are eight-point favorites in Tampa Bay even though the Bucs beat the Saints in the season-opener. With NFL odds and lines on the move, you’ll want to check out the latest Week 14 NFL picks and predictions from the advanced computer model at SportsLine before making your own selections.

SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 straight up last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 14 on a blistering 14-3 run. For the season, it is now 28-12 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 76-46. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 129-61 on the season, ranking in the top two on NFLPickWatch.com. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now it has examined the latest NFL odds and spreads, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its Week 14 NFL picks are in. One of the top Week 14 NFL picks the model recommends: The Patriots (-8) cover on the road against the Dolphins

Miami stayed alive in the AFC wild-card picture with a 21-17 victory over Buffalo that put it back at .500 (6-6) on the year. An upset over the Patriots would be huge for the Dolphins’ postseason chances, but the model is calling for a comfortable double-digit win for New England. 

According to the model, Tom Brady throws for over 325 yards and two touchdowns, while Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski team up for 150 yards receiving. The Patriots cover in well over 50 percent of simulations, while the over (47) hits more than 55 percent of the time. 

Another one of the top Week 14 NFL predictions from the model: the Redskins cover as 3.5-point home underdogs against the Giants. 

Originally, the Redskins opened up as 2.5-point favorites. However, heavy action on the Giants has driven that line six points in the other direction. Even with Mark Sanchez under center for Washington, the model says the Giants only win by one.

The model knows the Redskins’ defense is more than capable of wearing out Eli Manning and the Giants’ offensive line by applying plenty of pressure. The Redskins had seven sacks in these teams’ first meeting, a 20-13 Redskins victory.

The model projects that the Redskins put Manning on the ground three more times on Sunday and force a pair of turnovers, which helps them cover nearly 65 percent of the time. There’s plenty of value in taking the Redskins money line (+163) since Washington wins outright in 52 percent of simulations.

The model also has a strong pick for the huge NFC East battle between the Cowboys and Eagles, and is calling for a playoff contender to get absolutely stunned by an underdog in a game that will shake up the standings forever.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 14? And which playoff contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-4, 37.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 53)
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-4.5, 49)
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns (+1.5, 47)
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 49)
New Orleans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8, 56)
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 38.5)
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+7.5, 47)
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+3.5, 41)
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (+5.5, 44.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers (-14, 47.5)  
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5, 40.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 43)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders (+10.5, 51.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (+3, 52)
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 45)

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