It’s Week 10 in the NFL, and after three weeks of the public pounding sportsbooks, we’re seeing a ton of massive lines on the board. Not only are the Chiefs one of the biggest favorites of the season laying 16.5 points to the Cardinals, but three other games have had double-digit spreads at times during the week, including the Chargers laying 10 on the road in Oakland. As of this writing, only two Sunday games have spreads of less than 5.5 points: Redskins-Buccaneers and Jaguars-Colts. Will this be a week of blowouts in the NFL?
We’ll take you game by game to reveal how our experts picked the lines earlier in the week while also sharing our thoughts on survivor pool picks for Week 10 and showing you all the great places you can find NFL picks talk throughout the week. Let’s get to it.
So which teams should you back in Week 10 of the NFL season? And which Super Bowl contender gets a huge scare? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has outperformed 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com the past two seasons.
Bills at Jets
- Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
- Open: Jets -7
- Current: Jets -7
“If Roger Goodell ever quits his job and gives it to me, the first thing I’m going to do is move all of Nathan Peterman’s games to prime time. I’ll be honest, there’s no quarterback in the NFL who’s more thrilling to watch than Peterman. The best part of watching Peterman is that literally anything can happen on any play. I mean, I’m pretty sure he’s the only quarterback in NFL history who has thrown as many touchdown passes to his team as he has to the other team. In two seasons, Peterman has thrown three touchdown passes and three pick-sixes. Anytime he steps on the field, it’s basically like watching Leonardo DiCaprio in Titanic; you know it’s all going to end in disaster, but you’re going to be entertained for three hours, so you might as well watch.” — John Breech, who’s predicting a 16-13 win by the Jets
You can read more from Breech about this game as well as his other picks this week in his Tuesday column.
Falcons at Browns
- Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
- Open: Falcons -2.5
- Current: Falcons -6
“Last week I bet against the Browns because I felt the line was undervaluing the Chiefs, particularly with all the coaching changes Cleveland was dealing with. This week I think the line isn’t giving Cleveland enough credit in this matchup. The Falcons are being overrated after beating up on the Redskins last weekend. Combine that with the Browns getting crushed themselves, and you get this line. … I like the Browns a lot here. The Falcons defense played well last week, but it’s still the same unit allowing over 28 points per game in 2018. The Browns will be able to move the ball against it.” — Tom Fornelli, who predicts the Falcons will win 27-24
You can see which other picks Fornelli is riding in his Week 10 best bets column.
Saints at Bengals
- Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
- Open: Saints -3.5
- Current: Saints -5.5
“The Saints are coming off a big, emotional victory and now must play a team coming off a bye on the road — and outside. That’s a challenge. I think the Saints are good enough to handle it, but they aren’t good enough to cover. The Bengals will keep this game close — so take the points.” — Pete Prisco on his Week 10 best bets
Prisco has posted back-to-back 4-1 weeks, so you may want to think about following his best bets while he’s hot. You can get all five of them right here.
Redskins at Buccaneers
- Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
- Open: Buccaneers -1
- Current: Buccaneers -3
“The Redskins are in first place in the NFC East but after a string of injuries along the offensive line in Sunday’s loss to the Falcons, their position atop the division is tenuous at best. Things are so dire that the Bucs are three-point home favorites, which would otherwise seem like an impossible proposition for a team that ranks 27th in the league and features the 32nd-ranked defense. But it won’t get any easier Alex Smith, who struggled in Jay Gruden’s offense before his offensive line went down, even against a Tampa Bay defense that has struggled all season. Washington needs a win to fend off the surging Eagles but they may not have enough bodies to pull it off.” — Ryan Wilson, who says the Bucs will eek out a 21-20 win
Wilson is 83-49-2 picking game straight up on the season. You can see his predictions for the final score of each game in his Wednesday picks column.
Patriots at Titans
- Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
- Open: Patriots -6
- Current: Patriots -7
“Yep, I’m still rolling with the Pats! They are finding a way to score into the mid-30s seemingly no matter who’s playing and no matter who the opponent is. I generally like Bill Belichick in games against some of his former assistants or players. And I like the Patriots against pretty much any team in the league right now, especially with Sony Michel on the way back. The Titans offense is fairly limited in what it can do and Belichick will find a way to mitigate Marcus Mariota’s damage.” — Jason La Canfora on his Week 10 best bets
La Canfora is 15-6-1 in his best bets column this year, and he has two more picks he likes for Week 10. You can check them out in his Friday column.
Jaguars at Colts
- Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
- Open: Colts -1
- Current: Colts -3
Will Brinson: “If the offensive line can get a little bit healthier — Jacksonville has to jump out to a hot start, if they don’t do that, they’ll lose. That’s just how Jacksonville operates.”
R.J. White: “If, if, if, if, if –”
Brinson: “I don’t think Indianapolis can blow out the Jacksonville Jaguars in Indianapolis, but I think Jacksonville can blow out Indy. I love Indy, they’re a physical team, they’re underrated, but I’m taking the Jaguars +3 here.”
White: “Indy scored 34-plus points in four of their last five before the bye …”
Brinson: “I saw that, that’s scary.”
White: “…220-plus rush yards in their last two. So it’s not just Andrew Luck, the run game is getting going. Jacksonville’s D can slow that Indy offense down when they’re at their best, but … this isn’t the same Jaguars unit as it was last year. Indy plays the run pretty well, so this game might come down to can [Blake] Bortles win a game on the road.”
Brinson: “GUUUUHHHHH”
White: “If you wanna just make this a three-point game, and you got Andrew Luck on one side and Blake Bortles on the other, and you’re rushing to take Blake Bortles on the road? I’ll take Andrew Luck. … I like Indy in this one.”
Brinson: “I did NOT take the Jaguars in my SuperContest picks, so that’s good news.”
White: “That’s at least one good move you’ve made so far.”
That’s from the Friday edition of the Pick Six Podcast, hosted by Will Brinson five days a week. It’s all the things you’re looking for: news, fantasy, picks, really, just football stuff for football people. If you haven’t subscribed yet, what are you waiting for? Subscribe: via iTunes | via Stitcher | via TuneIn | via Google Play.
Lions at Bears
- Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
- Open: Bears -3.5
- Current: Bears -6.5
“Chicago has the best defense in football, and it’s getting Khalil Mack back. On the other side, Detroit has one of the worst defenses by DVOA. The Bears’ offense will have wide receiver Allen Robinson back for this one, while the Lions are still living in life after Golden Tate. The Lions haven’t played well on the road, and I can’t see them rising up against this defense. Bears win easily.” — R.J. White on his SuperContest picks for Week 10
I’ve cashed in the contest twice in the last three years, and there’s plenty of time to go on a run and get back in the money this year. Check out all five of my plays at SportsLine, and use promo code WHITE to get your first month for $1.
Cardinals at Chiefs
- Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
- Open: Chiefs -14
- Current: Chiefs -16.5
“I tend to pick the Chiefs a ton. And it’s been working. The Chiefs are 8-1 against the spread this season. This week’s monstrous spread won’t make me go away from them all of a sudden. That’s how much of a disadvantage the Cardinals will be at on Sunday. The Chiefs are the league’s best team by DVOA. The Cardinals are second to last with both of their wins coming against the Jimmy Garoppolo-less 49ers. … I just can’t figure out a way the Cardinals, who are averaging 13.8 points per game, will be able to keep up with the Chiefs, who are averaging 36.3 points per game. It’s not like the Chiefs are susceptible to turnover-heavy games. They’ve turned the ball over eight times this season and their only turnover last week against the league’s best turnover-creating team came on a Hail Mary. I could go on, but it ultimately comes down to the Chiefs being the best team in football and the Cardinals being one of the worst teams in football.” — Sean Wagner-McGough, who has the Chiefs laying all those points in his best bets
Wagner-McGough is red hot in his Thursday best bets column this season, so you may want to check out who else he’s taking in Week 10.
Chargers at Raiders
- Time: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)
- Open: Chargers -7.5
- Current: Chargers -10
If you’re still alive in your survivor pool, first off, congratulations. I’m sure easy options are starting to run thin. You’ve probably already used the Chiefs and Rams at some point, but I’m guessing you have one of the Packers or Chargers left. The best time to use both was in Week 4, where the Packers shut out the Bills and the Chargers squeaked by the 49ers at home in their first game without Jimmy Garappolo. While taking road teams in a survivor pool is a little risky, I’m giving the edge to the Chargers of the two. This is one of the biggest yards-per-play differential mismatches all season, and the healthy Chargers offense should have no problem throwing a ton of points on the Raiders. The Raiders have also shown the propensity to quit in the second half of games, so I’m not that worried about a comeback if the Chargers go up early. I’d definitely use the Chiefs if I still had them, but if not, the Chargers are my second choice, followed by the Packers.
SportsLine expert Mike Tierney shares his thoughts on survivor pool play for Week 10 over at SportsLine, and considering he’s over 75 percent straight up on all games over the last six weeks, you might want to listen.
Dolphins at Packers
- Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
- Open: Packers -7
- Current: Packers -10
“This is the first home game the Packers have played in a while. The Dolphins ran only 20 plays in the second half, against the Jets they scored their only TD on a pick. Their offense is dead. Green Bay should run it up on them pretty good. The number doesn’t worry me.” — Vegas legend Hank Goldberg on his Week 10 best bets
You can get all of Hammerin’ Hanks best bets over at SportsLine.
Seahawks at Rams
- Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
- Open: Rams -9.5
- Current: Rams -10
“As I’ve been saying all week long on the podcast, if you can get 10 in this game, go get it now. It’s going to move and it’s not going to close as a double digit. This is the biggest underdog Russell Wilson has ever been in his career — since 2012, the Seahawks have never been dogs by more than 7.5 points and have only been dogs by 7.5 points in three games in that stretch, all of which they covered. I get the Rams are going to be angry about losing and they’ll be focused on locking up the division, which a win would effectively do here, but they’re also going to be thinking about Week 11’s matchup against the Chiefs in Mexico City. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are fighting for their lives. They are 4-4 and right on the fringe of the NFC playoffs. Lose this game and it’s a major uphill battle with other wild-card teams making moves up the board. Seattle can run the ball effectively and have an offensive line that’s better than people realize. The Rams are susceptible to the run (24th in DVOA defense) and Seattle can muddle this game by churning clock. It’s just too many points.” — Will Brinson on his Week 10 best bets
Brinson is fading not just the Rams but also another Super Bowl favorite in his best bets for Week 10, which are already 1-0 after the Steelers routed the Panthers on Thursday night.
Cowboys at Eagles
- Time: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
- Open: Eagles -5.5
- Current: Eagles -7
“I think this is a close game late in the fourth quarter. The whole world has turned on Dallas after Monday Night Football. Now is the time to hop back on! Cowboys cover.” — CBS Sports HQ host Nick Kostos
Kostos shot out to a 23-12 start in the Las Vegas SuperContest, and he’s looking to jump back into the money by making the Cowboys one of his five SuperContest picks for Week 10. He’s joined by a cavalcade of NFL betting experts each Sunday at noon ET for SportsLine’s NFL preview, where the team goes through the NFL slate each week and shares what you have to know before placing your bets. Be sure to join them at noon ET on Sunday over at CBS Sports HQ, your 24/7 home for news, analysis, Fantasy and gambling insight, and more.
Giants at 49ers
- Time: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- Open: 49ers -1.5
- Current: 49ers -3.5
When it comes to Giants vs. 49ers on Monday Night Football, you absolutely need to hear what SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein has to say. Hartstein is 11-3 in his last 14 picks involving the 49ers — he knows when to back them, when to fade them. For Thursday Night Football last week, Hartstein cited Oakland’s porous defense as a reason to back the Niners — and called for a big day from the San Fran passing game. The result: Nick Mullens passed for 262 yards and three TDs in his first career start, a 34-3 rout.
Moreover, Hartstein is a sizzling 30-14 on all NFL ATS picks this season! Now, he has locked in a strong against-the-spread pick for this game. Join SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on.
Thanks for checking us out, and good luck with your picks in Week 10!