The 2018 NFL season has already provided plenty of drama and Week 4 is sure to be another wild one. After earning their first win in 635 days last week, the Browns are three-point underdogs again against the Raiders in latest Week 4 NFL odds. Despite Baker Mayfield being named the starter after leading the come-from-behind victory last Thursday, the Browns will look to pull off another upset and surge above .500. In another game where a rookie quarterback will be making his first start, Josh Rosen and the 0-3 Cardinals are also three-point underdogs at home against the Seahawks. With NFL odds moving, you’ll need to see the Week 4 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

It also nailed its two top-rated picks in Week 2, including backing the Ravens (-5.5) against the Broncos. It’s now 7-2 on top-rated picks this season, extending its run to an impressive 55-36. 

Now it has simulated every snap 10,000 times and its Week 4 NFL picks are in. 

One of the Week 4 NFL picks the model is all over: the Saints (-3.5) win and cover against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. 

New Orleans has recovered well from a season-opening loss to the Buccaneers, pulling off back-to-back wins against the Browns and Falcons that came down to the wire. New York got on the board with a win over the Texans in Week 3, but the model is projecting the Giants’ defense to struggle against a New Orleans team that is averaging 34.7 points and 442 yards. 

The model projects Drew Brees to top 300 yards through the air and throw at least two touchdowns as the Saints cover the spread in almost 60 percent of simulations. Michael Thomas goes for over 100 yards for the second straight game and finds the end zone in the team’s final game without running back Mark Ingram (suspension).

Another one of the Week 4 NFL picks the model is extremely high on: the Chiefs (-4.5) cover at home on Monday Night Football against the Broncos. 

With Patrick Mahomes installed as their new starting quarterback, the Chiefs offense has looked dynamic through three weeks. Kansas City leads the NFL in scoring at 37.7 points per game and Mahomes is now a legitimate MVP candidate. The second-year quarterback has thrown for 896 yards and a stunning 13 touchdowns against no interceptions.

SportsLine’s model projects another big day for Mahomes, with nearly 300 yards of total offense and two more passing touchdowns. It also says he’ll avoid committing his first INT of the season.

After simulating Broncos vs. Chiefs 10,000 times, the model is projecting a final score of 32-23. The model slightly favors the Under (55) but says the Chiefs cover in 58 percent of simulations. It also says there’s plenty of value on the Chiefs money line (-220), as KC wins outright 67 percent of the time.

The model also has a strong pick you need to see for the AFC East showdown between the undefeated Dolphins and the Patriots, and is calling for a favored Super Bowl contender to get a huge scare at home.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 4? And what Super Bowl contender gets a huge scare? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans (+4, 41)
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 47)
Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers (-10, 45)
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 43.5)
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5, 38.5)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5, 47.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (-5, 51)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-3, 46.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+3, 38.5)
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-3, 45)
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5, 46.5)
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (+3.5, 50)
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 50.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+4.5, 55.5)