The NFL’s decision to flex the Bengals-Chiefs game into Sunday night for Week 7 could end up being a disaster for Cincinnati and that’s because they can’t ever seem to win on Sunday nights.
Although most people are well aware of the fact that the Bengals haven’t been able to win in the playoffs under Marvin Lewis, things are almost as bad for the team in Sunday night games. Since NBC took over the Sunday night package in 2006, the Bengals have played a total of seven games, and it’s been ugly: They’ve gone 0-7 straight-up and 1-6 against the spread (ATS). Ouch.
For this week’s game, the Bengals have opened as a six-point underdog against the Chiefs, who have a slightly better track record on Sunday nights. Including their 43-40 loss to New England in Week 6, the Chiefs have covered in four straight Sunday night games while going 3-1 straight-up in those games.
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As for the Bengals, getting scheduled for a Sunday night game has basically turned into a nightmare over the past few years. Since drafting Andy Dalton in 2011, the Bengals have gone 0-5 straight-up on Sunday night (1-4 ATS) and they’ve lost those five games by an average of 11.2 points. There’s a reason his nickname is “Daytime Dalton” and not “After Dusk Dalton.” That being said, the one thing to keep in mind with the Bengals is that none of those five losses with Dalton have been played recently. This week will mark Cincinnati’s first Sunday night appearance since Week 11 of the 2015 season.
By the way, the Bengals aren’t the only team trying to break an ugly streak this week. One AFC team is trying to end a 10-game losing streak to the NFC. For that and more nuggets for Week 7, let’s get to the early odds.
NFL Week 7 early odds
(All lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, all games on Sunday unless noted. Keep in mind, the point spreads you see below represent the opening odds for Week 7. For the most up-to-date line on each game, you can click here)
Broncos (2-4) at Cardinals (1-5), Thursday
Opening line: Broncos -1.5
The Broncos are just 1-4-1 ATS on the season, which is the second worst mark in the NFL this year, but that doesn’t mean you should bet against them, and that’s mainly because the Broncos have been one of the NFL’s most unstoppable teams on Thursday. In their past 10 Thursday games, the Broncos are 8-2 both straight-up and ATS. As for the Cardinals, they’ve dominated over the past five years in home games against AFC teams. Since 2013, the Cards are 9-1 straight-up in homes games against the AFC (5-4-1 ATS).
Titans (3-3) vs. Chargers (4-2) in London
Opening line: Chargers -6.5
This game is being played in London and as we mentioned last week, the favored team almost always wins in England. Since the international series began in 2007, the favored team has gone 16-5-1 straight-up and 14-8 ATS, which bodes well for the Chargers. Another thing that bodes well for the Chargers is that they’ve been unbeatable when favored by six or more points. The past 15 times that’s happened, the Chargers have gone 15-0 straight-up and 8-7 ATS. As for the Titans, they’ve actually been pretty good at pulling off the upset when they’re a big underdog. Since Marcus Mariota’s rookie year in 2015, the Titans have been an underdog of six or more points a total of eight times and they’ve gone 4-4 both straight-up and ATS. This will be the Titans’ first game ever in London. On the Chargers end, this will be their second appearance. Philip Rivers lost a 37-32 shootout to the Saints in 2008. One weird tidbit in this series to keep in mind is that the Chargers are 8-0-1 ATS (8-1 straight-up) against the Titans since the team moved from Houston to Tennessee in 1997.
Patriots (4-2) at Bears (3-2)
Opening line: Patriots -3
One of the safest bets over the past few years has been taking the Bears and the points anytime they’re a home underdog. Since the beginning of the 2016 season, the Bears have been a home dog a total of 11 times and they’ve gone an amazing 9-1-1 ATS over that span (5-6 straight-up). As for the Patriots, they’re 0-2 both straight-up and ATS on the road this season. Including those two losses, the Patriots are 12-3 ATS in their past 15 games dating back to last season. One other thing worth noting: Tom Brady has never lost to the Bears (4-0 all-time, 3-1 ATS).
Bills (2-4) at Colts (1-5)
Opening line: Colts -6.5
This game marks the first time since 2016 that the Colts have opened as a favorite of six or more points and that likely has a lot to do with the fact that the Bills quarterback this week is either going to be a banged up Josh Allen or the pick-six machine himself, Nathan Peterman. In Andrew Luck’s career, the Colts are 12-3 straight-up when favored by six or more and 10-5 ATS, although they’re 0-3 ATS (1-2 straight-up) the past three times it’s happened. As for the Bills, they’ve actually won two games this season when opening as an underdog of six or more points. In Week 5, the Bills beats the Titans 13-12 as a six-point dog. In Week 3, the Bills stunned the Viking 27-6 as a 16.5-point underdog.
Lions (2-3) at Dolphins (4-2)
Opening line: NO LINE
This is the only game of Week 7 with no opening line and that’s because oddsmakers aren’t sure who the starting quarterback is going to be for the Dolphins. With Ryan Tannehill (shoulder) on the sideline in Week 6, Brock Osweiler engineered a 31-28 upset of the Bears in game where the Dolphins closed as a 7-point underdog in some places. The Dolphins are 3-0 at home this season and have covered in all three games. Of course, Detroit has also been impressive against the spread this season: The Lions are 4-1 ATS on the year, which is the second best mark in the NFL. The Lions are also 5-1 ATS following a bye over the past six seasons, which is tied for the best mark in the league over the span.
Vikings (3-2-1) at Jets (3-3)
Opening line: Vikings -3
The Jets have somehow turned into the safest home bet in the NFL. Since the beginning of the 2017 season, the Jets have gone 9-2 ATS at home, which is the best mark of any team over that span. Of course, the one time you might not want to bet the Jets is when they face an NFC team. In their past 10 game against the NFC, the Jets are 3-7 straight-up and 4-5-1 ATS. As for the Vikings, they’ve dominated the AFC lately, going 12-3 ATS in their past 15 games (10-5 straight-up).
Panthers (3-2) at Eagles (3-3)
Opening line: Eagles -3.5
The Eagles have been nearly unbeatable in home games under Doug Pederson, going 15-4 straight-up since he was hired in 2016. However, they’ve had some trouble covering the spread recently, going just 1-4 ATS in their past five home games. On the Panthers’ end, they can’t seem to figure things out on the road. Dating back to last season, the Panthers have lost four in a row on the road and have gone 0-4 ATS in those games. These two teams played last season with the Eagles covering as a 3-point underdog in a 28-23 road win.
Browns (2-3-1) at Buccaneers (2-3)
Opening line: Buccaneers -3
The Browns have ended several ugly streaks this year, but one streak they haven’t ended is their losing streak against NFC teams. Since Hue Jackson took over as coach in 2016, the Browns have gone 0-9 against NFC teams and 1-8 ATS, which is the worst ATS mark of any team in the NFL over that span. As for Tampa, this game marks just the seventh time in Jameis Winston’s career the Bucs have been favored by three or more points. In the six previous games, the Bucs have gone 1-5 ATS (2-4 straight-up). The Browns are 4-2 ATS on the season, which is tied for the third best mark in the NFL.
Texans (3-3) at Jaguars (3-3)
Opening line: Jaguars -4.5
The Jaguars swept this series last season with two dominating wins over the Texans (45-7, 29-7) where they covered in both games. However, the Texans have been the hottest team in the AFC over the past three weeks with three straight wins. Of course, that doesn’t mean they’ve been covering the spread. The Texans are just 1-2 ATS during their three-game winning streak and they’re 1-9 ATS in their past 10 games overall dating back to last season. As for the Jags, they’ve been impressive in Jacksonville recently, going 7-1 straight-up in their past eight at home (6-2 ATS).
Saints (4-1) at Ravens (4-2)
Opening line: Ravens -2.5
Drew Brees has accomplished a lot in his career, but one thing he’s never done is beat the Baltimore Ravens. As a matter of fact, Brees has at least one win against every team in the NFL except for the Ravens (0-4 all-time). The good news for Brees is that the Ravens have struggled recently against NFC teams. Since the beginning of the 2015 season, the Ravens have gone 4-8 straight-up against the conference and just 3-8-1 ATS. One thing to like about the Saints is that they have the second longest winning streak in the NFL right now (four games) and they’ve also covered the spread in three straight games.
Rams (6-0) at 49ers (1-4)
Opening line: Rams -11
If the Rams have proven one thing under Sean McVay, it’s that no spread is too large. Since McVay took over in 2017, the Rams have been favored by 11 or more points a total of two times and they covered in both games. On the other hand, the 49ers have actually become pretty good at covering enormous spreads. The past five times the 49ers have been an double-digit underdog, they’ve gone 4-1 ATS (but 0-5 straight-up). The 49ers have owned this series recently, going 4-1 in their past five games against the Rams, including 5-0 ATS. In McVay’s career, the Rams are 0-2 ATS against the 49ers, but 12-8 ATS in all other games. The Rams have also failed to cover the spread in three straight games this season.
Cowboys (3-3) at Redskins (3-2)
Opening line: Redskins -2.5
The Cowboys have dominated this series recently, winning six of the seven and going 5-2 ATS in those games. Dallas has also won five straight games against the Redskins in Washington. Another reason to like the Cowboys is because they’ve been one of the best teams in the NFL at covering the spread in a divisional game. Since the beginning of the 2017 season, the Cowboys are 6-1 ATS against the NFC East, which is the second best divisional mark of any team over that span. In that same span, the Redskins have gone an ugly 1-5 ATS against the NFC East.
Bengals (4-2) at Chiefs (5-1)
Opening line: Chiefs -6
The Bengals might be winless with Andy Dalton on Sunday nights, but that doesn’t automatically mean you should bet against them, and that’s mainly because the Chiefs have had a tough time covering large spreads. As a matter of fact, if there’s one time you might want to bet against the Chiefs, it’s when they’re favored by six or more points. The last 15 times that’s happened (all under Andy Reid), the Chiefs have gone 4-11 ATS (10-5 straight-up). On the other hand, betting against the Chiefs has been a horrible idea this year: Kansas City is a perfect 6-0 ATS this season, which is the best mark in the NFL.
Giants (1-5) at Falcons (2-4), Monday
Opening line: Falcons -3.5
The Falcons have been on a Monday night roll over the past four years. Since 2015, the Falcons have gone 4-0 straight-up on Monday Night Football and 3-1 ATS. On the flip side of that, the Giants have been atrocious. In their past 10 Monday games, the Giants have gone 3-7 both straight-up and ATS. The Giants have actually been pretty bad in all primetime games over the past few years. Since the beginning of the 2016 season, New York is 3-8 straight-up in primetime and 3-7-1 ATS.