I was able to bounce back from an 0-3 performance during Week 5 with a 2-1 record last week, coming up short of a perfect week when the Rams allowed a Broncos touchdown with 82 seconds left to blow the cover. No, I’m not bitter about this, why do you ask?

Of course, that wasn’t a bad beat, that happens when betting on NFL games. Plus, to be honest, I got a bit lucky with the Dolphins covering against the Bears. When I picked the Dolphins +3, I did so when, like everybody else, I thought Ryan Tannehill would be starting. Instead Miami surprised everyone when it announced Tannehill was dealing with a shoulder injury late in the week, and sure enough, Brock Osweiler started against the Bears, and Miami won in overtime in a game it should have lost three separate times.

So I’ll forgive them for that blown cover against the Bengals. And I’ll be even more grateful if they follow the plan this week because the Dolphins are once again being included in this column for the third-straight week.

So which teams should you back in Week 7 of the NFL season? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has outperformed 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com the past two seasons.

Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins

Since the 2008 NFL season teams coming off a bye have gone 168-149-10 ATS. So, if you’d just blindly bet them you’d have made money, but not much. When you look closer, though, you see that teams coming off a bye are 101-70-7 ATS when they’re favored in their first game back. Road favorites are 45-20-2 ATS when coming off a bye.

All of which makes Detroit an enticing option here, don’t you think? There’s more to this pick, though. The fact is, as I mentioned earlier, while Miami won in OT against the Bears last week, it probably shouldn’t have. The Bears had two red-zone turnovers in the game, and after Khalil Mack injured his ankle, any semblance of a Bears pass rush disappeared. Plus the team just looked tired on defense in the Miami heat. I’d take the Lions here no matter who is starting at QB for the Dolphins this week. Lions 26, Dolphins 20

Cleveland Browns (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay defense is abysmal. The Bucs have allowed 0.542 points per play this season, which ranks dead last in the NFL. For further context on that stat, the Raiders rank 31st in the NFL at 0.493 points per play. That’s a large gap between the Bucs and the next-worst defense.

A defense this bad is hard to trust as a favorite, whether at home or on the road. If there’s any defense in the NFL that can help Baker Mayfield and this Browns offense find a groove, it’s Tampa’s. Bucs 28, Browns 27

New York Giants (+6) at Atlanta Falcons

This spread is just too large, and there’s a chance it could be even bigger by the time Monday night’s game kicks off. I get that the Giants are bad, but people tend to overreact to how bad the Giants are because they’re the New York Giants and not the Indianapolis Giants. Plus, after I just went into detail about how horrible Tampa’s defense is, and how hard is to trust a bad defense as a favorite, there’s no way I could back Atlanta here.

The Falcons defense ranks 30th in the NFL, allowing 0.487 points per play. It’s been especially bad against the run, allowing 5.1 yards per carry, which ranks 29th in the NFL. So, yeah, maybe Eli Manning is washed, but you know who isn’t? Saquon Barkley, that’s who. And, sure, perhaps the Giants will live to regret taking Barkley over a QB in the long run, but bettors will profit from it if they take the Giants against Atlanta on Monday. Falcons 30, Giants 27

SportsLine Bonus Pick

Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals are hosting the Broncos on Thursday Night Football, with the Broncos favored by 1.5 points and the total set at 42 points. I have a strong play for this game, and if interested in learning what it is, you can do just that by heading over to my SportsLine page.