According to the latest Week 11 NFL odds, several teams on cusp of the playoff picture have an uphill climb. The 4-5 Eagles opened as nine-point underdogs at the Saints, marking the biggest spread a defending Super Bowl champion has faced the year after winning the title since 2009 (Steelers at Ravens). The Titans (5-4) and the Colts (4-5), meanwhile, both desperately need a win to keep pace with the Texans in the AFC South. Vegas views that matchup as almost even, with Indianapolis (-1.5) holding a slight edge. And Atlanta (-3) is set to battle Dallas in a matchup of 4-5 teams in a game that almost qualifies as a must-win for both sides. With NFL odds and lines shifting and playoff positioning up for grabs, be sure to check out the top Week 11 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 11 on a blistering 10-0 run. For the season, it is now 24-9 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 72-43. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 98-48 this season, again ranking in the top 15 on NFLPickWatch.com. Anybody who has been following it is way, way up. 

Now it has examined the latest NFL odds and spreads, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its Week 11 NFL picks are in.

One of the top Week 11 NFL picks the model loves: the Bears (-2.5) cover at home against the Vikings. 

Several trends point strongly toward Chicago in this matchup. The Bears have covered in three straight games, are 4-1 against the spread at home and 5-2 against the spread as favorites. Minnesota is a dismal 28th in the league in rushing, averaging just 91.7 yards.

According to the model, Chicago’s second-ranked rush defense holds Minnesota’s backs to well under 100 yards as the Bears cover in over 55 percent of simulations. That dominant defensive performance also helps the Under (44.5) hit 55 percent of the time. 

Another one of the Week 11 NFL predictions from the model: the Steelers (-5) cover on the road at Jacksonville despite Le’Veon Bell not reporting this week. 

The line in this game has moved 1.5 points in favor of the Steelers as bettors are fading a Jacksonville team that has lost five straight, four by eight points or more. Despite the increased spread, the model still finds plenty of value on Pittsburgh as the Steelers look for their sixth straight win, with the previous five coming by an average margin of 16.8 points. 

According to the model, Steelers running back James Conner, who is expected to play despite a stint in the concussion protocol this week, accounts for almost 100 yards and a touchdown as the Steelers cover in over half of simulations. There’s also plenty of value on the Under (46.5) because that hits almost 55 percent of the time. 

The model also has made the call on the huge Chiefs vs. Rams “Monday Night Football” showdown, and is projecting that a Super Bowl contender will get a huge scare on the road. 

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 11? And what Super Bowl contender gets a huge scare? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (+4.5, 49.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 49.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-4)  
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 50.5)
Houston Texans at Washington Redskins (+3, 42.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (-2.5, 52.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5, 46.5)
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, 45.5)
Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5, 41)
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 56)
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 44.5)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 63)