Happy Turkey Day gambling! Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday of the year. I get to eat a fried turkey with all the fixings and watch three NFL games. It’s basically heaven. And since this is a special day, I’ll give you a special gambling breakdown of these three games starting in Detroit.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions +4
Home dogs were barking last weekend, including the Lions, who covered and beat the Panthers as underdogs. They are so up and down that it’s tough to bet on them, but I like them in this spot. We’ve seen that home teams on short weeks have been in control this season. The Lions are 2-0 at home this season as underdogs and won both games outright.
Enter the Bears, who have the best defense in the NFL and an offense that’s continuing to improve. We know on Thursday games the body doesn’t recover as fast and defenses don’t play quite the same. That could be a slight advantage for the Lions. Also, with Chase Daniel starting, give me the Lions +4
Ok, here’s the caveat for this pick. This line opened at 9.5. It’s now at 7. If it dips below 7, I’m not sure I’m taking Washington here. And I know what you’re thinking here. They just lost Alex Smith to a broken leg and starting Colt McCoy on a short week. When Alex Smith broke his leg, Washington had 7 points. McCoy lead them on two scoring drives to take the lead, 21-20, before losing on a field goal late in the game.
We’ve seen this season that back up quarterbacks in their first start far exceed expectations. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brock Osweiler, Nick Mullens and Matt Barkley all played out of their minds in their first start. Why? First, the opposing team doesn’t have film on the new quarterback. Doesn’t know his tendencies. Second, and more importantly, it feels like the entire team steps up their game knowing there is a backup quarterback. I think in this specific case, Washington knows the Cowboys are their direct competition to win the NFC East and will play well trying to beat a rival and keep their lead. McCoy has been in this offense for years now and he should, at the minimum, be efficient.
The Cowboys defense is legit. Their pass rush is something that could be an issue for Washington, and they will need to come up with a game plan of quick passes and a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson.
The Cowboys still have a bland offense, even with Amari Cooper on the roster. Washington is eighth in pass defense, according to Football Outsiders DVOA. Lastly, according to Action Network, “the Cowboys are 0-7 against the spread on Thanksgiving with Jason Garrett as the full-time head coach. They’ve failed to cover by 10.44 points per game.”
Give me Washington in this one.