LOS ANGELES, – NOVEMBER 19: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) in the pocket during a NFL game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Rams on November 19, 2018 at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)Getty
After two seasons of declining ratings, viewing of NFL games are up in 2018. There are a few reasons for the uptick in TV viewing including a lot of high-scoring games and marquee matchups in prime time.
In 2017, the ratings for the NFL regular season had dropped by 10% from the 2016 season. It marked the second consecutive year ratings had declined. So far, 11 weeks into the 2018 season, NFL ratings are up by 4%, marking the first ratings increase in three years.
Scoring Is Up: As most any football fan will tell you, watching NFL games in 2018 has been exciting. One reason is that scoring is on a record-setting pace. After 11 weeks, the NFL has been on a record pace for most points scored (7,791), most touchdown (895) and most passing touchdowns (570). On average, there are 48.4 points scored in a game, another record. Teams that score the most are also Super Bowl contenders.
In the past, the conventional wisdom has been a strong defense wins championships. In 2018, that notion has been spun on its head. Since 1970, there have been only eight teams that have averaged more than 35 points per game, and three of them are playing in 2018. The New Orleans Saints with quarterback (and MVP candidate) Drew Brees lead, averaging 37.8 points per game. The Kansas City Chiefs follow, averaging 36.7 points, and the Los Angeles Rams are averaging 35.4. Besides having high powered offenses, the three top scoring teams have a combined win-loss record of 29 and 4. All three lead their respective divisions and are expected to make deep runs in the postseason. By comparison, the defenses of the three teams all rank in the bottom half of NFL teams. The Kansas City defense ranks 29th (out of 32 teams), the Los Angeles Rams rank 26th and New Orleans is tied for 21st. Conversely, teams with statistically strong defenses such as the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars are struggling to win games.
Marquee Matchups: The NFL has been able to put some of their best matchups in prime time in front of the largest audience possible. In a recent Monday Night Football game on ESPN between the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs, the Rams’ 54 to 51 victory marked the first time in NFL history that both teams scored over 50 points in the same game. The match-up featured two of brightest young quarterbacks in the league, Jared Goff of the Rams and Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs. The game averaged 16.7 million viewers, the most watched NFL game on ESPN in nearly two years. ESPN’s Monday Night Football viewing is up by 9% from last year.
The Sunday Night Football game in week nine featured the much-anticipated matchup between two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers and Tom Brady of the New England Patriots. It was only the second time in their long careers the two quarterbacks have played in the same game. The game averaged 23.7 million viewers, the highest prime time telecast since the Oscars last March. Sunday Night Football has had several other high-profile and exciting match-ups that have averaged over 20 million viewers. These include New England defeating Kansas City in another offensively charged game, 43 to 40. That week six contest averaged 21.1 million viewers. NBC reports its audience for Sunday Night Football is up 8% from last season.
Thanksgiving games have been an NFL tradition since 1920 and has always been a popular day to watch football. When compared to last year, all three 2018 games delivered a higher audience. The most notable was the late afternoon game on Fox with the Dallas Cowboys playing host to divisional rival Washington Redskins. According to Fox, the game averaged nearly 30.5 million viewers, the highest regular season game of the season and an audience larger than the 2018 Oscars telecast of 26.5 million.
Fewer Controversies: Besides high-scoring games there are other reasons cited for the ratings rebound in 2018. The controversy surrounding the national anthem has subsided to some degree. The NFL continues to make strides in players’ safety with new rules to protect them. The league announced that in pre-season games the number of concussions dropped by 13% from the previous year. Another factor is legalized gambling. Mark Lazarus the head of NBC Sports estimates that legalized gambling could account for as much as a 10% jump in ratings. Viewers are likely to spend more time watching football if they made a wager on the game.
Advertisers Haven’t Left: With two years of declining ratings, the ad rates for the NFL in 2018 had dropped from the previous season. According to Ad Age, the average cost for a :30 ad on Sunday Night Football was $665,000, a drop from last season’s $700,000. In its first season of Thursday Night Football on Fox the average :30 ad rate is $434,000, a drop of more than $100,000 from 2017 when the games were split on CBS and NBC. Nonetheless, these are the two most expensive :30 ads on prime-time television. The most expensive NFL game in 2018 for advertisers is the late national Sunday afternoon game on Fox with a :30 commercial costing over $700,000. (Typically, Fox late afternoon games average a higher audience than Sunday night contests).
As a result of stronger ratings, ad volume for the NFL is up 5%. Through the first 11 weeks, iSpot.tv reports, NFL ad dollars are $2.39 billion, up from $2.27 billion in 2017.
With the number of viewing options continuing to grow, virtually every television program is losing viewers year-to-year. Furthermore, NFL games can be streamed on a number of digital platforms, impacting television ratings. This makes the NFL’s ratings growth in 2018 even more impressive.