Although we’re in the middle of summer, if you squint you can just make out the beginning of the regular NFL regular season now. How do the oddsmakers view your team’s chances in 2018?
Let’s take a look at every team in the NFL.
Note: All futures odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of June 25. All game line references from Weeks 2-16 courtesy of CG Technology.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles
O/U wins: 10.5
Super Bowl: 10-1
Conference: 5-1
Division: 2-3
The Eagles are the favorites in the NFC and have the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl. Last season, Philadelphia won it all after entering the season at 40-1. The Eagles also led the NFL with a 13-6 ATS record, but can they live up to expectations in 2018? Only once in the previous 10 seasons has the NFC East favorite gone on to win the division (2016 Dallas Cowboys).
Dallas Cowboys
O/U wins: 8.5
Super Bowl: 30-1
Conference: 15-1
Division: 11-4
The Cowboys entered each of the previous three seasons as the NFC East favorite, but currently have the second-best odds in 2018. The win total of 8.5 for Dallas is right on par with how the team has done under Jason Garrett. In the eight seasons since Garrett took over as head coach midseason in 2010, the Cowboys have won an average of 8.5 games per year.
New York Giants
O/U wins: 7
Super Bowl: 40-1
Conference: 20-1
Division: 6-1
The Giants are 40-1 to win the Super Bowl, which is a far cry from last season, when they entered with 12-1 odds. Arguably, no team will face a tougher start to the season than New York, which is currently an underdog in each of its first seven games. While the over is a -135 favorite on the Giants’ win total of 7, keep in mind that they have won six games or fewer in three of the past four seasons.
Washington Redskins
O/U wins: 7
Super Bowl: 100-1
Conference: 50-1
Division: 8-1
Expectations are low for the Redskins, who are currently tied with the Arizona Cardinals for the worst Super Bowl odds at 100-1. Washington’s division odds are 8-1, but we’ve seen this franchise overcome long odds to win the NFC East before. Washington won the division in both 2012 and 2015, despite entering each season as the long shot to claim the NFC East (10-1 in 2012 and 35-1 in 2015).
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings
O/U wins: 10
Super Bowl: 10-1
Conference: 5-1
Division: 4-5
Only the New England Patriots have better Super Bowl odds than the Vikings, who are currently 10-1 to win it all. For the first time since 2009 (with Brett Favre), Minnesota is the favorite in the NFC North. The Vikings will look to continue rewarding bettors who back them, as they are an NFL-best 44-22-1 ATS under Mike Zimmer.
Green Bay Packers
O/U wins: 10
Super Bowl: 14-1
Conference: 7-1
Division: 8-5
Green Bay has entered every season since 2010 as an odds-on favorite to win the NFC North, but is currently second behind Minnesota to claim the division in 2018. With a healthy Aaron Rodgers, the Packers still have high expectations. Green Bay has the highest win total among teams that missed the playoffs in 2017.
Detroit Lions
O/U wins: 7.5
Super Bowl: 50-1
Conference: 25-1
Division: 7-1
The first two months could make or break the season, as Detroit is currently an underdog in six of its first seven games. The Lions will also have to overcome history for bettors to cash in on their 7-1 odds to win the NFC North. The franchise will be seeking its first division title since 1993.
Chicago Bears
O/U wins: 6.5
Super Bowl: 80-1
Conference: 40-1
Division: 12-1
The Bears haven’t won more than six games in a season since going 8-8 in 2013, but over 6.5 wins in 2018 is a minus-140 favorite. Can new head coach Matt Nagy do what John Fox couldn’t and win when favored? Fans in Chicago hope so, as the team lost outright in seven of its eight games as a favorite during the Fox era.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints
O/U wins: 9.5
Super Bowl: 18-1
Conference: 9-1
Division: 8-5
Last season was all about exceeding expectations for the Saints, who went 11-5 en route to winning the NFC South, despite entering 2017 as the division long shot at 6-1. New Orleans is no long shot in 2018. The team is favored to win the NFC South, but history suggests that a division title is no guarantee. In the three most recent seasons the Saints entered as division favorites (2012, 2014 and 2015), they failed to win it each time.
Atlanta Falcons
O/U wins: 9
Super Bowl: 16-1
Conference: 8-1
Division: 2-1
The Falcons have won at least 10 games in each of the previous two seasons, despite entering with single-digit win totals both times. Can Atlanta do it again? Fans and those who back the Falcons this season will be hoping for a fast start. After their season opener at Philadelphia, where they are a 4.5-point underdog, the Falcons are currently favored in eight of their next nine games.
Carolina Panthers
O/U wins: 9
Super Bowl: 40-1
Conference: 20-1
Division: 9-4
This is the second consecutive season the Panthers have a preseason win total of nine. After hitting the over by going 11-5 in 2017, Carolina has now alternated going over and under its win total in every season since 2010. Can the Panthers break the trend in 2018? It might not be easy in the NFL’s only division boasting three teams with a win total of at least nine.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
O/U wins: 6.5
Super Bowl: 80-1
Conference: 40-1
Division: 10-1
Recent history suggests Tampa Bay’s 10-1 odds to win the division could be a good bet. In each of the previous two seasons, the preseason long shot in the NFC South went on to win the division.
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams
O/U wins: 10
Super Bowl: 10-1
Conference: 5-1
Division: 4-5
What a difference a year makes. In 2017, the Rams won the NFC West after entering the season with 15-1 odds to win the division. As for this season, only the Eagles, Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers have better odds to win their respective divisions than Los Angeles. The preseason win total of 10 for the Rams is the franchise’s highest since 2002 (11), when they went under with a 7-9 record.
San Francisco 49ers
O/U wins: 8.5
Super Bowl: 20-1
Conference: 10-1
Division: 5-2
After starting 1-10 in 2017, Jimmy Garoppolo led the 49ers to five consecutive wins to avoid a fourth straight season of the team going under its win total. Expectations have now been elevated for San Francisco, which needs to win nine games in order to hit its over in 2018. Keep in mind, this is a franchise that has been favored five times in 48 games since Jim Harbaugh left for Michigan.
Seattle Seahawks
O/U wins: 8
Super Bowl: 40-1
Conference: 20-1
Division: 7-2
At 40-1 to win it all in 2018, the Seahawks have the same Super Bowl odds as the Giants and Denver Broncos. Seattle also has the third-best odds in its own division. This is a far cry from recent preseason expectations for the Seahawks, who entered every season since 2014 as the odds-on favorite to win the NFC West.
Arizona Cardinals
O/U wins: 5.5
Super Bowl: 100-1
Conference: 50-1
Division: 18-1
At 50-1, the Cardinals have by far the worst division odds of any team in the NFL. Arizona’s win total of 5.5 is its lowest since 2004 (also 5.5), when Emmitt Smith was the starting running back.
AFC East
New England Patriots
O/U wins: 11
Super Bowl: 6-1
Conference: 3-1
Division: 1-6
The Patriots currently have the best odds to win the Super Bowl, are by far the biggest favorite in any division and have the highest win total in the NFL. This would mark the third straight season that New England enters as the Super Bowl favorite. The Patriots’ odds to win the AFC East are steep and the win total is 11, but keep in mind that New England has won nine straight division titles while also winning at least 12 games in every season from 2010 on.
Buffalo Bills
O/U wins: 6.5
Super Bowl: 80-1
Conference: 40-1
Division: 12-1
The Bills snapped their 17-year playoff drought with a 9-7 season in 2017. Just like a year ago, Buffalo has a win total of 6.5 entering 2018, the lowest among the 12 playoff teams from last season. Can the Bills avoid a slow start? They are currently not favored in a game until Week 9 against the Bears.
Miami Dolphins
O/U wins: 6.5
Super Bowl: 80-1
Conference: 40-1
Division: 8-1
The last team beside the Patriots to win the AFC East was Miami in 2008; the Dolphins entered that season with 25-1 odds to win the division. Miami’s odds to win the AFC East are “just” 8-1 in 2018, but the win total is an underwhelming 6.5.
New York Jets
O/U wins: 6
Super Bowl: 80-1
Conference: 40-1
Division: 12-1
After entering last season with a win total of 3.5, the Jets actually exceeded expectations by going 5-11. The bar has been raised a little for New York, which will need to win seven games in order to cash the over this season. The franchise has thrived in this spot, having hit the over in six of the previous seven seasons it entered with a win total less than eight.
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers
O/U wins: 10.5
Super Bowl: 10-1
Conference: 5-1
Division: 2-5
The Steelers have won the AFC North in three of the previous four seasons, and enter 2018 with 2-5 odds to win it again. Pittsburgh hasn’t been this big of a division favorite since drafting Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. Only the Patriots have a higher win total than the Steelers, who will be seeking to hit their over for the fifth consecutive season.
Baltimore Ravens
O/U wins: 8
Super Bowl: 50-1
Conference: 25-1
Division: 3-1
The win total of eight for the Ravens is their lowest since John Harbaugh’s first season in 2008. Overall, the over has been a good play during Harbaugh’s tenure, as Baltimore’s win total record is 6-3-1 during his 10 seasons. In fact, the Ravens have won fewer than eight games just once since 2008.
Cincinnati Bengals
O/U wins: 7
Super Bowl: 80-1
Conference: 40-1
Division: 10-1
Expectations are low for the Bengals, who are 10-1 to win the division and have the same conference and Super Bowl odds as the Browns. This would be only the second time in 16 seasons under Marvin Lewis that Cincinnati is 10-1 or worse to win the AFC North (20-1 in 2011). The Bengals have hit the over in four of the five seasons that they entered with a win total below eight under Lewis.
Cleveland Browns
O/U wins: 5.5
Super Bowl: 80-1
Conference: 40-1
Division: 15-1
In order for the Browns to hit the over on their win total of 5.5, they would need to win six times as many games as they have in the previous two seasons combined. For those who believe Cleveland will turn it around this season and win at least six games, good luck. The Browns’ win-total record is 1-9 in the past 10 seasons (hit the over in 2014).
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars
O/U wins: 9
Super Bowl: 16-1
Conference: 8-1
Division: 7-5
In 2017, the Jaguars went 10-6 while going over their win total by 3.5 games, snapping a streak of six straight seasons in which their under hit. After winning the AFC South last season, Jacksonville is the division favorite in 2018. This would mark the first time since the AFC South was formed in 2002 that the Jaguars are favored to win the division.
Houston Texans
O/U wins: 8.5
Super Bowl: 16-1
Conference: 8-1
Division: 8-5
Despite going 4-12 in 2017, the Texans’ win total is 8.5 this season, with the over currently a minus-140 favorite. The return of quarterback Deshaun Watson and defensive end J.J. Watt from injury would figure to be a big reason for the high expectations. Prior to last season, Houston had gone 9-7 in each of Bill O’Brien’s first three years as head coach.
Tennessee Titans
O/U wins: 8
Super Bowl: 25-1
Conference: 12-1
Division: 7-2
The Titans not only made the playoffs last season for the first time since 2008, but overcame an 18-point deficit to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the wild-card round. Tennessee’s success last season was about on par with the expectations from oddsmakers. The Titans matched their win total of nine and actually disappointed by not winning the AFC South, despite entering as division favorites. The outlook takes a small step back in 2018, as Tennessee enters with a win total of eight and the third-best odds in the division.
Indianapolis Colts
O/U wins: 6.5
Super Bowl: 60-1
Conference: 30-1
Division: 7-1
No team faces more uncertainty this offseason than the Colts, who were without Andrew Luck for the entire 2017 season due to a shoulder injury. Luck’s status for 2018 will greatly affect the team’s outlook. Since his rookie season, Indianapolis is 46-30 straight up and 43-31-2 ATS when Luck starts, compared to 10-16 straight up and 13-13 ATS when he sits.
AFC West
Los Angeles Chargers
O/U wins: 9.5
Super Bowl: 16-1
Conference: 8-1
Division: 3-2
The Chargers missed the playoffs in 2017, but are tied with the third-best odds to win the AFC this season, behind only New England and Pittsburgh. Out of the eight current division favorites, Los Angeles is the only one that didn’t make the playoffs last season. Are higher expectations good for the Chargers? The previous two seasons they entered as AFC West favorites were 2010 and 2011, and they fell short of the playoffs both times.
Kansas City Chiefs
O/U wins: 8.5
Super Bowl: 20-1
Conference: 10-1
Division: 5-2
The Chiefs started 5-0 last season before stumbling down the stretch and eventually blowing an 18-point lead at home in their playoff loss to Tennessee. Despite three straight double-digit win seasons, expectations are lower for Kansas City, which currently has a win total of 8.5. Fading Andy Reid might not be a smart idea, as the Chiefs have gone over their win total in all five of his seasons as the team’s head coach.
Oakland Raiders
O/U wins: 8
Super Bowl: 18-1
Conference: 9-1
Division: 3-1
Jon Gruden is back with the Raiders, who have arguably been the most unpredictable team over the previous two seasons. Oakland went over its win total by 3.5 games in 2016 and went under by that same margin in 2017. The spread is currently less than two points in each of the Raiders’ first three games, so those “toss-up” games could go a long way in determining how Gruden’s second stint with the franchise goes.
Denver Broncos
O/U wins: 7
Super Bowl: 40-1
Conference: 20-1
Division: 9-2
After a run of five straight division titles, the Broncos have failed to make the playoffs in each of the past two seasons. Denver is the long shot to win the AFC West in 2018 at 9-2, matching last season’s odds.