I’m picking the Lions — yes, the Detroit Lions — to beat the juggernaut Los Angeles Rams on Sunday at Ford Field.
Call me crazy — yes, I’ve been called worse (a lot worse) — but I think the Lions actually have a chance to win a tight, lower-scoring game against one of the NFL’s best offenses.
Final score: Lions 26, Rams 25.
Most people think the 4-7 Lions have no hope against the 10-1 Rams — kind of like they probably thought the Lions had no chance to beat the New England Patriots … or the Green Bay Packers … or the Carolina Panthers.
You get the point. Those upsets were crazy. And folks, no one does crazy better than the Lions.
But here’s what I’m really pinning the Lions’ hopes on: The defenses.
The Lions actually have a decent defense, and especially against the run. Can you believe over the past three games the Lions have allowed an NFL-best 148 rushing yards? That bodes well for containing stellar running back Todd Gurley. If the Lions can corral Gurley, that affects the Rams’ passing game and helps the Lions’ odds exponentially.
As for the Rams’ defense, it isn’t good. It ranks 20th and second-worst in rushing yards per play at 4.68. The Rams have been gashed on the ground lately, too. They’ve given up 100 yards rushing in four of their past five games — they gave up 98 yards to the Kansas City Chiefs — including 273 rushing yards to the Seattle Seahawks.
More: L.A. Rams’ offense near impossible to stop. What Detroit Lions will see
The Lions may not have Kerryon Johnson at running back, but they have savvy veteran LeGarrette Blount, who ran the ball down the throats of the mighty Chicago Bears’ second-ranked run defense last week for 88 yards and two touchdowns.
If you watched Blount, you saw that old spark. He ran angry through holes the offensive line made — and some that he created on his own.
Blount should be just as determined this week. He has crossed swords with Rams defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh before and doesn’t care for his dirty play. Blount knows it’s on his shoulders to help keep the Rams’ offense on the sidelines.
“We know how deadly their offense is and how many weapons they have,” he said Thursday. “Obviously we know they probably (have) the MVP in their backfield, so we just got to make sure we do everything we can to keep them off the field as much as possible. I’m sure our defense will do their job to help us out.”
Don’t forget that in the wins over the Patriots and Panthers, the Lions did exactly what Blount’s talking about and controlled the time of possession. And don’t forget Blount did enough to help put the Lions in position last week for a late 25-yard drive and a Matt Prater 51-yard field goal to beat the Bears, if not for Matthew Stafford’s horrendous pick-six that scuttled that drive on the first play.
If it wasn’t for Stafford’s bad throw, we might be talking about a resilient and resurgent Lions team on a two-game winning streak. Last week, I picked the Lions to beat the Bears and Rams, and I still believe they have that kind of strange, fluky potential at home. A pick here, a fumble there and it’s quite possible.
There are a few more things to consider. The Rams can clinch the NFC West with a victory, but they pretty much clinched the division three weeks ago when they completed their sweep of the Seattle Seahawks. If I were Rams coach Sean McVay, I’d be downplaying a second straight division crown and keeping the focus on the Super Bowl.
That could make the Lions matchup a classic trap game. The Rams took over the top seed in the NFC on Thursday night. Thanks to the New Orleans Saints’ loss, the Rams’ road to the Super Bowl just got that much easier. And that easily could lead the Rams to overlook the Lions while worrying about having to fly right back to the Midwest next week for a showdown with the Chicago Bears.
The Rams may not look like it, but they have to be a tired team. The California wildfires have disrupted the team’s practices and forced a few players to evacuate their homes. Some players experienced cramping against the Chiefs possibly because they were training for altitude in Colorado to prepare for the game in Mexico City that was eventually moved to L.A.
The Lions’ also have a secret weapon — voodoo goalposts — they’re well-rested and playing at home for a third straight game.
Here’s my trump card. I grew up in L.A. and the Rams were our Lions. Great in the 1950s and later on boasting a Hall of Fame running back whose career they wasted. The Rams did play in one Super Bowl while they were in L.A. But they were never consistently great, let alone champion, until they moved to St. Louis and lucked into a stock-boy quarterback.
(Yes, Lions fans, it could be worse. Your team could move to Salt Lake City and win the Super Bowl five years later.)
Until the Los Angeles Rams actually win a Super Bowl, I’ll always have my doubts. But after Sunday I’m pretty sure I know what I’ll be saying: Same Old Rams.
Contact Carlos Monarrez at cmonarrez@freepress.com or follow him on Twitter @cmonarrez.