In January 2017, the Los Angeles Rams hired a then-30-year-old Sean McVay, the youngest head coach in modern NFL history.
They did so in hopes of thwarting a more-than-decade-old pattern of mediocrity that began in St. Louis and extended, with Jeff Fisher, to the team’s return to the West Coast. Their combined record from 2005-16: 60-131. And absolutely zero playoff appearances.
Almost exactly two years later, it’s safe to say the plan worked. The Rams are one win away from the Super Bowl.
McVay’s Coach of the Year honor in 2017, the same season his star running back won Offensive Player of the Year and star pass rusher won Defensive Player of the Year, may have looked premature after his Rams went one-and-done in their first postseason since 2004. But no one’s questioning his play-calling prowess now, with L.A. fresh off a first-round bye, 13 wins under its belt and only the equally-hyped New Orleans Saints standing in the way of a trip to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta for Super Bowl LIII, which you can stream here on CBSSports.com.
As we prepare for Sunday’s AFC and NFC Championships, we’ll be making the Super Bowl case for each of the four remaining teams. Will Brinson thinks the New England Patriots have what it takes to do it again. Sean Wagner-McGough thinks Patrick Mahomes gives Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs just as good of a chance.
Here, we explore how the Rams can win it all, capturing their first Lombardi Trophy since 1999.
Keep running the rock
Franchise quarterbacks are, more often than not, the biggest key to success for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. But in the Rams’ case (and perhaps more than any of the other three teams still alive), there’s an argument to be made that L.A. does best when it keeps its own signal-caller under wraps.
OK, so maybe that’s an exaggeration, because bust-turned-baller Jared Goff didn’t throw 4,600 yards and 32 touchdowns in 2018 behind closed doors. But it’s not insane to suggest the Rams have some similarities to the team they just beat, the Dallas Cowboys, in terms of balancing their quarterback’s workload with a ground game. Jason Garrett is no McVay, and the ‘Boys are worse than the Rams in just about every offensive category — creativity, depth, reliability. But just as Dak Prescott is often at his best when Ezekiel Elliott is running wild, Goff — and, more so, the Rams — are very clearly at their best when Todd Gurley is handed the keys to the car.
Does this focus on a balanced attack apply to almost every NFL offense and QB, to some degree? Yes. But all you need to do is take a look at how the Rams went 13-3 this season to determine why running the ball — and not leaning on their franchise QB — is how they can win themselves a title.
For as pretty as Goff’s statistics were, there are clear indicators that L.A. isn’t as good when he’s asked to chuck it more. Here are how things work out, for example, when Goff throws at least 40 passes in a game under McVay:
Rams record: 2-5
Goff’s average QB rating: 78.7
Now, again, does this stat hold true for most teams and QBs? Generally speaking, if a QB is throwing more than 40 passes, it means his team is playing catch-up anyway. But there’s another factor at play with the Rams: Gurley and the running game. McVay may have opportunities to air it out against a Saints D known for surrendering big plays or a Chiefs secondary made of Swiss cheese, but it’s imperative that he first establish Goff’s best friend and keep the touches coming for Gurley and/or late-season stud C.J. Anderson.
Why? Because all year long, it’s been the ground game that’s either a.) opened things up for Goff’s best games or b.) saved the Rams from Goff’s worst. To illustrate the latter point, consider the four biggest clunkers of Goff’s 2018 season:
Week 6 vs. Broncos: 14-28, 201 yards, 1 INT, 58.8 rating
Week 13 vs. Lions: 17-33, 207 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 68.6 rating
Week 14 vs. Bears: 20-44, 180 yards, 4 INT, 19.1 rating
Week 15 vs. Eagles: 35-53, 339 yards, 1 INT, 75.9 rating
Now, with those ugly numbers in mind, consider how effective Gurley was in the same games:
Week 6 vs. Broncos: 28 carries, 208 yards, 2 TD
Week 13 vs. Lions: 23 carries, 132 yards, 2 TD
Week 14 vs. Bears: 11 carries, 28 yards
Week 15 vs. Eagles: 12 carries, 48 yards, 2 TD
The Rams went 2-2 in those games. Can you guess which two they won? (Hint: It’s not the last two.) You can potentially write off some of the bad Gurley games above to L.A. simply facing great defenses (hi, Bears!), but guess what? The Lions finished 2018 with a top-10 run defense, and that didn’t stop McVay from banking on the ground game to pull out a win there. Ditto for the Rams’ first playoff win, in which the team’s RBs carried the ball 39 times against the Cowboys’ top-five run D.
The takeaway is clear, and it shouldn’t be overthought: To keep winning and, ultimately, win it all, the Rams don’t need their franchise quarterback as much as they need to keep running the rock.
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Protect Jared Goff
Obvious, right? This actually goes hand in hand with the Rams sticking to the run. Establishing Gurley, Anderson and a ground game is Step 1 to taking pressure off Goff under the bright lights. The extension to that, however, is simply keeping Goff in a clean pocket. We’ve seen that a commitment to the run can help the Rams overcome Goff’s so-so outings (see: Cowboys playoff game) and even his worst ones (see: Broncos, Lions games), but at the end of the day, you still have to be ready to help your QB if the game comes down to him.
The numbers don’t showcase the need for protecting Goff quite as cleanly, because you’ll see that some of his finest performances of 2018 actually came when he endured multiple sacks. For example, his four-touchdown showing vs. the Chiefs in November’s famous 54-51 shootout included five sacks. But the eye test says otherwise. Anyone who witnessed the former No. 1 overall pick against the Bears or the Eagles late in the regular season saw a rattled leader, if not a skittish one. And the fact that Goff ranks second to last in the NFL in terms of total QB fumbles (13) doesn’t necessarily bode well for any postseason pressure he faces.
“Protecting” him, of course, goes beyond just the offensive line, which stood its ground against a formidable Dallas front to kick off the playoffs. It’s a responsibility that also lies in the hands of McVay, who’ll need to get spicy if he’s scheming against New Orleans’ overachieving front four — and especially Bill Belichick’s Pats defense.
Play rough
We’re going to bypass the standard requirements like “force turnovers” and “get pressure,” because those are not only givens but things the Rams should be doing with their talent anyway. When Aaron Donald is on your front, you need to be pushing the pocket. When you’re in the playoffs, you need to come up with a takeaway. It’s as simple as that.
But for L.A. in particular, there’s something to be said for maintaining a chippy attitude, as cliche as that sounds. Every team and player’s goal is to force its will on opponents, but the Rams boast an especially edgy character on D, and they need to showcase that to the fullest moving forward.
Toughness can’t exactly be measured on a football field, but you could argue that Los Angeles has some of the most imposing figures left in the postseason. Donald is a freak of nature. Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters and Ndamukong Suh offer feisty, physical styles of play.
We all know, at the end of the day, it comes down to execution. And Wade Phillips is smart enough to game-plan his way to victory. But we also already know L.A. is good enough and smart enough to execute. In the playoffs, and especially on a run to the Super Bowl, you need not only execution but — how do you say it? — “oomph.” The Rams have the personalities to play rough, let the opponents know who’s boss and then tell them about it. It’ll be up to them to keep that swagger through the highs and lows of whatever the NFC Championship and/or Super Bowl throw their way.