Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season is finally here and fans won’t have to wait long for the kickoff game between the Falcons and the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday. It’s a rematch of last season’s NFC Divisional round game in which the Eagles won 15-10. Now, after opening as four-point favorites, Philadelphia is favored by 2.5 in the latest NFL odds, and we know that Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles will be under center while Carson Wentz recovers from a torn ACL. On Sunday, the Panthers are now three-point favorites over the Cowboys after that line opened at Carolina -2.5, and the Vikings are favored by six in Kirk Cousins‘ debut against San Francisco after opening at 4.5-point favorites.
With so many eye-popping games and so many NFL odds on the move, you need to see the NFL picks and projections from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.
This proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and 2017. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
Now it has simulated every snap of Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season 10,000 times and the results are in.
One Week 1 NFL pick we can tell you: The model likes the Jaguars (-3) to go on the road and pick up a win and cover against the new-look Giants.
The model says Saquon Barkley gives the Giants much-needed help at running back and goes for almost 80 yards against a tough Jacksonville defense. But the Jags, fresh off a surprising trip to the AFC Championship Game, get off to a strong start in 2018 behind 250 yards of passing from Blake Bortles and 75 yards on the ground from Leonard Fournette.
According to SportsLine’s model, Jacksonville wins this one straight-up 60 percent of the time and covers the spread with a point to spare. Also, back the Under (43.5) because the computer likes that pick almost 60 percent of the time.
Another Week 1 NFL pick we’ll give away: The Green Bay Packers (-7.5) will get a big victory in Aaron Rodgers‘ return against the NFC North rival Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football.
The Bears are hoping offseason acquisitions like receiver Allen Robinson and tight end Trey Burton help revitalize their offense. And over the weekend, they traded for 2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack. However, the model is calling for only 18 points for Chicago and for Green Bay to cover the 7.5-point spread at Lambeau Field. You can also confidently back the Under (47.5) because that hits in 61 percent of simulations.
The model also has a strong pick you need to see for the huge AFC showdown between Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson, and it’s also calling for one Super Bowl contender to come flying out of the gates with a monumental victory that doubles the spread. You can get all these NFL picks only over at SportsLine.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 1? Check out the NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 45)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+4, 45.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (-6, 46)
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 40.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants (+3, 43.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5, 49.5)
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-6, 51)
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 47)
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (+1.5, 45)
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 47.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (-3, 42)
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (-3, 42.5)
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals (PK, 44)
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 47.5)
New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 44.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Oakland Raiders (+4.5, 49.5)