Week 1 of the 2018 NFL regular season will start Thursday with Eagles vs. Falcons, and everybody from Average Joes to professional bettors are already making their picks. NFL odds are shifting dramatically as sportsbooks take plenty of action on a full slate of 16 games.
The defending champion Philadelphia Eagles are 2.5-point favorites against the Falcons after the line opened at 4, the Patriots are 6.5-point favorites against Texans, and the Panthers are favored by 3 over the Cowboys in a game that has already seen plenty of line movement.
With so many eye-popping games and so many NFL odds on the move, you need to see the NFL picks and projections from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.
This proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and 2017. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
Now it has simulated every snap of Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season 10,000 times and the results are in.
One thing we can tell you: The model loves the Vikings against the 49ers in a battle of teams with lofty postseason aspirations.
It’s calling for a big debut for Kirk Cousins in Minnesota, saying the Vikings win straight-up against San Francisco in 63 percent of simulations and cover the 5.5-point spread, with Cousins passing for almost 250 yards and two touchdowns.
Another Week 1 NFL pick we’ll give away: The Green Bay Packers will get a big victory in Aaron Rodgers’ return against the NFC North rival Chicago Bears.
The Bears are hoping offseason acquisitions like receiver Allen Robinson and tight end Trey Burton help revitalize their offense. And on Saturday, they traded for 2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack. However, the model is calling for only 18 points for Chicago, and for Green Bay to cover the 8-point spread at Lambeau Field. You can also confidently back the Under (47.5) because that hits in almost 60 percent of simulations.
The model also has a strong pick you need to see for the huge AFC showdown between Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson, and it’s also calling for one Super Bowl contender to come flying out of the gates with a monumental victory that doubles the spread. You can get all these NFL picks only over at SportsLine.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 1? Check out the NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 45.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+5.5, 46.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (-6, 46)
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 41)
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants (+3, 43.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5, 49.5)
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-6.5, 51)
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 46)
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (+1, 45)
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 47.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 42)
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (-3, 44)
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals (PK, 44)
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-8, 47.5)
New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 44.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Oakland Raiders (+3, 49.5)