Week 4 of the 2018 NFL season has arrived and sportsbooks have already released opening NFL odds for every game. The Bears opened as 2.5-point favorites against the Buccaneers, but line movement could be on the way as Tampa Bay names its starting quarterback. The Chargers are favored by 10.5 against the 49ers, as San Francisco is now without starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (knee) for the rest of the season. In other NFL spreads, the Patriots are seven-point favorites against the Dolphins, but that line has already come down a half-point as bettors have shown confidence in a Miami team that’s off to a surprising 3-0 start. With so many storylines and injuries to sort through and Week 4 NFL odds already on the move, be sure to check out the Week 4 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.
SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
It also nailed its two top-rated picks in Week 2, including backing the Ravens (-5.5) against the Broncos. It’s now 7-2 on top-rated picks this season, extending its run to an impressive 55-36.
Now it has simulated every snap 10,000 times and its Week 4 NFL picks are in.
One of the Week 4 NFL picks the model is all over: The Saints (-3.5) win and cover against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium.
New Orleans has recovered well from a season-opening loss to the Buccaneers, pulling off back-to-back wins against the Browns and Falcons that came down to the wire. New York got on the board with a win over the Texans in Week 3, but the model is projecting the Giants’ defense to struggle against a New Orleans team that is averaging 34.7 points and 442 yards.
The model projects Drew Brees to top 300 yards through the air and throw at least two touchdowns as the Saints cover the spread in almost 60 percent of simulations.
Another one of the Week 4 NFL picks the model likes: The Bills (+10) go to Lambeau Field and cover with room to spare.
The Bills looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL heading into Week 3, but they stunned Minnesota as more than two-touchdown underdogs. Oddsmakers are largely dismissing that performance as a fluke after opening the Bills as double-digit underdogs again this week. SportsLine’s model projects the Packers to win outright behind 250 yards from Aaron Rodgers, but you can bank on the Bills against the spread because they cover in over 55 percent of simulations. The model is projecting 47 points to be scored, clearing the over (45.5) by 1.5.
The model also has a strong pick you need to see for the AFC East showdown between the undefeated Dolphins and the Patriots, and is calling for a team with postseason aspirations to get absolutely shocked at home by an underdog.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 4? And what favorite goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 49)
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans (+3.5, 41.5)
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 47)
Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers (-10, 45.5)
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 43.5)
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5, 38)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-7, 47.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (-6, 51)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-2.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+3, 38.5)
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-2.5, 45)
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5, 47.5)
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (+3.5, 50)
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+4.5, 56)