As soon as the NFL schedule for the 2019 regular season was announced on Thursday, Las Vegas sports books sprung into action posting point spreads for Week 1. In sports betting, NFL is king … even in April.
Those opening point spreads allowed market observers to deduce approximate Power Ratings from oddsmakers. Using a standard three points for home-field advantage, it’s easy to tweak from final 2018 ratings to build a scale that represents the NFL from top to bottom.
VSiN’s Jonathan Von Tobel (“Betting Across America,” weekends from 10 a.m.-1 p.m. at VSiN.com) and I put our heads together to create such a scale. You regulars will remember our efforts during the 2018 regular season. The only difference here is we’re focusing at first on how sports book operators are rating teams. Sharps (pro bettors) have months to influence these preliminary lines.
Today’s numbers are based on Week 1 lines posted at the Westgate.
- AFC: Chiefs 86, Patriots 86, Chargers 84, Browns 83, Colts 83. Steelers 83, Texans 82, Ravens 81, Titans 81, Bengals 77, Broncos 77, Jaguars 77, Jets 76, Raiders 76, Bills 75, Dolphins 74.
Those represent “neutral field” differentials. We’re estimating Chiefs-Patriots would be a virtual pick ’em on a neutral field, meaning either home team would be favored by three in a head-to-head matchup (which will happen Dec. 8 at New England, though team perceptions could change by then).
Though there are many reasons for optimism about improvement for the Jets, laying -3.5 at home in a season opener vs. Buffalo isn’t yet a hint at imminent greatness. On this scale, a rating around 80-81 is usually the floor for “playoff caliber,” so there’s still some work to do for the Jets.
- NFC: Saints 87, Rams 86, Eagles 83, Bears 83, Seahawks 82, Cowboys 82, Vikings 82, Packers 82, Panthers 81, Falcons 80, 49ers 79, Redskins 78, Buccaneers 78, Giants 77, Lions 76, Cardinals 73.
The Saints and Rams are currently clear of the field based on first-week prices (Saints -7¹/₂ at home vs. Houston, Rams -2¹/₂ at Carolina). It would not be a shock for any of the NFC teams at 82-83 to make a leap forward in the championship chase.
Near the bottom of the NFC spectrum, the Giants currently rate better than just the Lions and Cardinals. Eli Manning and Co. are +7¹/₂ on the road at Dallas in their opener.
Note, the Jets and Giants are scheduled to meet in the regular season in 2019. That only happens once every four years. On Nov. 10, our ratings would suggest a virtual toss-up (Giants by 1) in that neutral-field encounter.
VSiN will talk about how to use these ratings to influence bets on regular-season win totals and the futures board throughout the spring and summer.