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N.F.L. Week 11 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread
The week features a meeting of 9-1 teams, the Saints looking for a ninth straight win, and a huge battle in the N.F.C. North.
- Nov. 15, 2018
Two of the most exciting offenses ever to take the field will square off on Monday night. Nearly everything on Sunday seems like an appetizer before the Chiefs and the Rams.
Here is a look at N.F.L. Week 11, with all picks made against the point spread.
Last week’s record: 7-6-1
Overall record: 82-61-4
The Week’s Top Matchup
Chiefs at Rams, 8:15 p.m. (Monday), ESPN
The N.F.L. could hardly have asked for a more exciting Monday night game. The Chiefs and the Rams, both 9-1, have widely been considered Super Bowl contenders all season and are the best teams in football, along with the New Orleans Saints.
The talent is off the charts. Patrick Mahomes has already set the Chiefs’ franchise record for touchdown passes in a season (31) with six games to play. He is flanked by ultrafast skill players like Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt, and he has a knack for knowing when to take advantage of coverage mismatches on tight end Travis Kelce.
The Rams were the top-scoring offense in the N.F.L. last season, and they have mostly picked up where they left off, with Jared Goff commanding an offense that has Todd Gurley, the best running back in football, and a group of wide receivers that manages to be top-notch even once you account for the loss of Cooper Kupp, who is out for the year with a torn anterior cruciate ligament.
While Los Angeles has plenty of big-name players on defense as well, neither team has done much defensively of late, which has led to the record-breaking over/under of 63.5 points.
Hugely hyped matchups can tend to disappoint, but the all-offense, very-little-defense approach both teams have employed in recent weeks should be a recipe for a game that delivers. The only disappointment is it won’t be in Mexico City’s Azteca Stadium as a result of the field conditions being judged unsuitable for an N.F.L. game.
In truth, the winner of this game is anyone’s guess. The Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum isn’t a huge home-field advantage for the Rams, and with most other things being equal, taking the underdog and the points seems like the smarter pick. Pick: Chiefs +3.5
Sunday’s Best Games
Eagles at Saints, 4:25 p.m., Fox
The N.F.L. is no place for sentimentality, and while the Eagles (4-5) had a dream season last year, they are currently just a so-so team. They still have the brilliant coaching staff (minus Frank Reich, last year’s offensive coordinator) and they still have the talented roster, but it is just not working as well. Going on the road to face the Saints (8-1), who just might have the best squad in the N.F.L., does not seem like a realistic time to turn things around. The point spread (8) might seem outrageous, but New Orleans has had an average margin of victory of 13.3 points in its eight victories, so another blowout would be par for the course. Pick: Saints -8
Steelers at Jaguars, 1 p.m., CBS
The Jaguars (3-6) are reeling. They have lost five consecutive games and look like a shadow of last year’s team on both sides of the ball. The personnel is still there, for the most part, but what worked last season just hasn’t this year. Now they have to host the Steelers (6-2-1), one of the hottest teams in the N.F.L., with the result either giving them a modicum of hope for this year’s prospects or crushing their spirit entirely. Pittsburgh is a much better team, but has in the past underestimated struggling opponents. With Jacksonville’s defense still having enough stars to make a team pay for mistakes, any attempt by Pittsburgh to mail this one in could be met with a close game or even an upset. Pick: Jaguars +5.5
Vikings at Bears, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Mike Zimmer may be the coach of the Vikings (5-3-1), but he invoked the name of a Minnesota great to describe the quarterback of the team he is facing this week.
“He gets the ball out with accuracy,” Zimmer said of Chicago’s Mitch Trubisky. “There’s other times he looks like Fran Tarkenton scrambling. Some of the runs he’s made are unbelievable.”
The turnaround from Trubisky, who was fairly dreadful last season, has been extreme, and the Bears (6-3) are scoring a whopping 29.9 points a game. Whichever team wins this game will be in the driver’s seat in the N.F.C. North, and with the Bears hosting what should be a cold night game in Chicago, they have the advantage. Pick: Bears -2.5
Texans at Redskins, 1 p.m., CBS
Alex Smith’s career truly has been remarkable. The No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft, he was widely considered to be a complete bust after six seasons in the N.F.L., but Coach Jim Harbaugh showed up in San Francisco and Smith suddenly found the talent that had made him the top pick in the first place. Since that turnaround in 2011, Smith’s record as a starter is 75-34-1. In his first year for the Redskins (6-3), it has simply been more of the same. The Texans (6-3) are a good team — probably a better overall team than the Redskins — but Smith finds ways to win, and Las Vegas making him an underdog at home seems foolish. Pick: Redskins +3
Thursday’s Matchup
Packers at Seahawks, 8:20 p.m., Fox and NFL Network
The Packers (4-4-1) and the Seahawks (4-5) will be defined largely by their quarterbacks for as long as Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson are around. But in this meeting of good teams with fairly bad records, the deciding factor could be which team gets more out of its running backs. Green Bay got a huge game from Aaron Jones in last week’s win over Miami, and if he can provide that production again, Rodgers should be able to handle the hostile conditions of Seattle’s CenturyLink Field and a Seahawks defense that has been far better than anyone expected after a large amount of turnover. Pick: Packers +2.5
Sunday’s Other Games
Panthers at Lions, 1 p.m., Fox
The destruction of the Panthers (6-3) at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers was on Thursday last week, so Carolina has had extra time to stew in its embarrassment. The offense got three touchdowns from Christian McCaffrey, who looked virtually unstoppable on runs and screen passes, but Carolina’s defense was atrocious. If Pittsburgh had not pulled its starters in the 52-21 win, the N.F.L. would easily have had its first 60-point game since 2011. The Lions (3-6) are not the Steelers, and a Carolina defense that has been above average for most of the season is set up for a solid rebound. Pick: Panthers -4
Broncos at Chargers, 4:05 p.m., CBS
The other team in Los Angeles is riding a six-game winning streak and just one loss behind the top teams in the N.F.L., but the Chargers (7-2) are rarely mentioned with the same breathless enthusiasm as the Rams and the Chiefs. Of course, the Chargers’ two losses have been at the hands of, you guessed it, the Rams and the Chiefs. Fundamentally, the Chargers are a solid, but unspectacular, team. They play tremendous defense (they have allowed 19 or fewer points in five consecutive games), and their offense, while not explosive, has yet to be held to fewer than 20 points. The Broncos (3-6), though, are being disrespected with a huge point spread. They are better than their record indicates, and while they will probably lose, they could keep the game close. Pick: Broncos +7
Titans at Colts, 1 p.m., CBS
The Titans (5-4) are a team no one wants to play. They are ranked 28th in the N.F.L. in scoring offense but they have a winning record thanks to a defense that suffocates its opponents and an offense that slows things down and chews up the clock. Sure, they took a brief foray into more typical dominance last week, crushing the Patriots, 34-10, but their average game score, 18.7-16.8, means fewer total points have been scored in their games this season (319) than the Saints, the Rams and the Chiefs have each scored themselves. Andrew Luck of the Colts (4-5) has thrown at least three touchdown passes in three consecutive games, but that looks like a streak that is about to end. Pick: Titans +2.5
Cowboys at Falcons, 1 p.m., Fox
Thanks to the division they play in, the Cowboys (4-5) have a better shot at the playoffs than the Falcons (4-5), and can improve their chances to 36 percent (according to The Upshot’s playoff simulator) with a win this week. Last week’s win over the Eagles helped erase the memories of two straight defeats for the Cowboys, and Atlanta, fresh off a loss to Cleveland, does not have a defense that can adequately protect it at home. Pick: Cowboys +3.5
Bengals at Ravens, 1 p.m., CBS
It is not as if the Bengals (5-4) had a defense worth mentioning at any point this season, but the last three weeks have been particularly ugly, with Cincinnati allowing a whopping 130 points. Sure, two of those games were against New Orleans and Kansas City, but to really drive home how high that number is, the Ravens (4-5) have allowed only 160 points all season. Joe Flacco had not practiced through Wednesday, which could lead to a start by the rookie Lamar Jackson (or, potentially, Robert Griffin III), but between Baltimore’s defense clamping down on the Bengals and Cincinnati’s looking like a scout team, the Ravens should be able to win at home regardless of who starts at quarterback. Pick: Ravens (off)
Buccaneers at Giants, 1 p.m., Fox
Monday night’s game was thoroughly confusing for those trying to figure out what direction the Giants (2-7) are headed. They were well on their way to yet another lifeless defeat, keeping pace with the Raiders for the top pick in next year’s draft, when suddenly Eli Manning remembered how to be aggressive, and the Giants toppled the 49ers. A home game against the Buccaneers (3-6), a team that cannot play defense and is prone to turnovers on offense, is a decent opportunity for a winning streak. Pick: Giants -1.5
Raiders at Cardinals, 4:05 p.m., CBS
There are two games this week that are entirely irrelevant as far as the playoff picture is concerned: The Chiefs-Rams matchup, in which both teams are essentially assured a spot no matter what happens, and this one, in which the Raiders (1-8) and the Cardinals (2-7) have both been given a zero percent chance of qualifying for postseason play by The Upshot regardless of this week’s result. Pick: Cardinals -5.5.
All times are Eastern.
Benjamin Hoffman is a senior staff editor and regular contributor to the Keeping Score column in sports. He joined The Times in 2005. @BenHoffmanNYT • Facebook
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