Irony struck the 2018 quarterback draft class. For as rightfully hyped as it was, none of the first-round signal-callers landed in “obviously the Week one starter” situations like Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota did in 2015.
Carson Wentz didn’t seem like a shoo-in to start instantly for the Eagles in 2016 … until they traded Sam Bradford a week before the regular season. The Texans made a big ascension in Round 1 of 2017 to draft Deshaun Watson, and probably regretted not starting him Week One.
Here are when each first-round quarterback from 2018 should and will make their first start as rookies.
(No, I don’t think any of these passers will sit out their entire first year in the NFL.)
What does Vegas think about these signal-callers as rookie starters? Check Jared Dubin’s article on the over/unders for rookie QB starts.
Baker Mayfield, Browns
Should debut: Week 12, vs. Bengals
Will debut: Week 6, vs. Chargers
Right now, the Browns are in full-on “Tyrod’s the starter” mode, and it’s a sensible philosophy. They traded the first pick in the third round to get him, and he was a respectable starter for the past three years in Buffalo.
As a Western New Yorker, I’ll tell you this … gear up for Taylor to be almost unfathomably polarizing in Cleveland. And it’s just a byproduct of his game. The scintillating sack escapes and low turnover rate will reel many in. His hesitance to pull the trigger when anticipation is needed and inability to consistently pick apart a defense from the pocket will drive others crazy.
And then you have Mayfield, polarizing in his own right, the No. 1 overall pick in the draft — a far cry from the backup options the Bills had in Buffalo during Taylor’s time there. The moment Taylor has a game with 17-for-25 for 125 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions, Browns fans — and most importantly, coaches — will be pining for Mayfield.
Now, I do think with Josh Gordon, Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, a solid offensive line and a thunderous running game, Taylor could thrive in Cleveland, keeping Mayfield hanging onto that clipboard outside the lines.
But I also believe the Browns current regime thinks they’re ready to win now. No, not the Super Bowl, but more games than they lose. And if they start, say, 1-4 or even 2-3 in contests against the Steelers, at the Saints, the Jets, at the Raiders, and home against the Ravens, there’ll be plenty of calls for a quarterback change, especially with the Browns’ offensive supporting cast.
Mayfield needs time to acclimate to a non-Oklahoma offense, which was the most creative, mind-bending attack I’ve ever witnessed loaded with superior-than-its-opponents talent and a brick-wall offensive line. In the NFL, he’ll need to get better drifting in the pocket than he was in college, and he won’t be able to lean on the outrageous improvisational play he showed during his time in the Big 12 anymore.
But, with Hue Jackson glued to the hot seat — in fact, after Week 5 could be the sweet spot for him to be fired — and the Browns confident in their bold convention-bucking selection of Mayfield at No. 1 overall, the reigning Heisman winner will see the field relatively early in the 2018 campaign.
Sam Darnold, Jets
Should debut: Week 10, vs. Bills
Will debut: Week 6, vs. Colts
Darnold played ahead of his time in college. But let’s remember he just turned 21, started 24 games for USC, and accounted for the most turnovers in college football last season.
Beyond that, two quality veterans are in place ahead of him on the depth chart at the moment … everyone’s favorite journeyman Josh McCown and former first-round selection Teddy Bridgewater, a refined passer on the cusp of stardom with the Vikings before a freak practice injury in August of 2016. Yes, the era he plays in skews this stat a bit, but Bridgewater is one of four quarterbacks in NFL history to attempt at least 300 passes in his first two NFL seasons and finish with a combined completion percentage of 64 of better and average at least 7.2 yards per attempt. The others are Ben Roethlisberger, Dak Prescott, and Kurt Warner.
In short, there’s no need for the Jets to rush Darnold onto the field, particularly during a season in which Gang Green doesn’t exactly boast a playoff-caliber roster.
That is not to say he absolutely shouldn’t play whatsoever as a rookie. I just don’t think it’s necessary. After all, he did explode onto the scene as a redshirt freshman in 2016 and led USC to a crazy Rose Bowl win while completing nearly 68 percent of his passes with 31 touchdowns and nine picks with a hefty 9.0 yards-per-attempt average.
I’m pretty sure the Jets want to exercise as much patience as possible with Darnold, especially considering the hefty price they paid to move up to get him. However, Todd Bowles is staring at back-to-back 5-11 seasons after his playoff-less 10-6 campaign to start his tenure with New York, which is the main reason I think Darnold will see the field slightly earlier than he probably should in 2018.
Josh Allen, Bills
Should debut: Week 5, vs. Titans
Will debut: Week 5, vs. Titans
The Bills start the season with a gauntlet; at the Ravens, home against the Chargers, at the Vikings, and at the Packers. Buzz’s girlfriend. Woof. In a roundabout way, Nathan Peterman was the sacrificial lamb for the Bills against the Chargers’ outrageous pass-rush in the November disaster for Buffalo in 2017, and I think he could take on a similar role early in the 2018 campaign.
I’m not a betting guy, but if I was, the +820 for Peterman to start Week One would be very close to a no-brainer. The Bills coaches like Peterman a lot, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s steadier in camp than Allen and McCarron, although he’s extremely unlikely to provide the “wow” throws Buffalo’s 2018 first-rounder can.
The Bills defense will keep them in games in September, yet 0-4 seems reasonable and a 2-2 start would be outstanding. Either way, that home outing against Tennessee seems like the logical time for Allen to make his Bills debut. The Titans defense won’t be brutal this season, but it probably won’t be as menacing up front as the squad’s in Baltimore, Minnesota, or Los Angeles (units that finished 3rd, 2nd and 6th in Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA in 2017), and having Allen start in Green Bay against Aaron Rodgers simply wouldn’t be doing right by the young quarterback.
Even one month on the sideline would be much more beneficial to Allen’s chance to succeed in the NFL in Buffalo than starting him right away.
Josh Rosen, Cardinals
Should debut: Week 1, vs. Redskins
Will debut: Week 3, vs. Bears
Sam Bradford has averaged starting 10.3 games over the past three seasons, which is nearly identical to his career average of 10 contests per year. Of course, on the subject of rookie quarterbacks, preaching patience to the media is the smart public relations move, but most of the time, teams want to see their young signal-caller growing as a player on the field.
Beyond that, for this specific example, Rosen is ready to seriously compete with Bradford out of the gate. With new head coach Steve Wilks, Arizona might be willing to go the old-school route and start Bradford Week One against the Redskins. However, Rosen winning the job outright in camp and the preseason wouldn’t surprise me whatsoever. After that, a trip to Hollywood to face the Rams‘ defensive line featuring Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh, Michael Brockers, and Dominique Easley — and a loaded secondary — will spell the end of Bradford’s time starting for the Cardinals.
And I’m not necessarily predicting an injury. Even though it’s Bradford we’re talking about here, that’d be preposterous. I just think that game will be bad enough for the former No. 1 overall pick that Wilks will signal to the bullpen for Rosen to take the reins for Week Three’s home outing against the Bears before back-to-back divisional games against the Seahawks and 49ers.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Should debut: Week 3, vs. Broncos
Will debut: Week 12, vs. Raiders
At quarterback, the Ravens are in the most awkward position of all the team’s that drafted a passer in the first round of the 2018 draft. Yes, even more than the Browns with Taylor and Mayfield.
Why’s that, you ask? Well, in 2017, Joe Flacco’s 713 drop backs (most in the NFL, by the way) netted just 5.08 yards (counting sacks and rushes as well as passes), easily the lowest among all “full-time” starting quarterbacks. Even looking solely at passing, in 2016, his 6.4 yards-per-attempt average was the fourth-lowest among 30 qualifying quarterbacks.
But it’s Flacco. The most recognizable Ravens offensive player of the last decade. A Super Bowl MVP. Oh, and not to mention, he represents a $24.7M cap hit this season. Jackson was a super-polarizing prospect and flashed outstanding pocket-passing skills in his final season at Louisville. Unfortunately and strangely for him, they were mostly outweighed by his Michael Vick-like running talent. With Colin Kaepernick’s and Tyrod Taylor’s former offensive coordinator Greg Roman on staff in Baltimore, it’s safe to assume the Ravens will be able to construct a system that gets the most out of Jackson’s rare skill set.
The former Heisman winner seeing the field as the starter will simply come down to when the front office and coaching staff will together green light the move away from the franchise’s best and most successful quarterback and begin a new era under center. And I’m thinking that’ll take much longer than many Ravens fans will like.