The NFL Draft is a complicated process.
There are countless mock drafts created ahead of time to try and predict what’s going to happen, but those never end up being completely accurate. Some players end up falling more than expected, and some end up going way higher than projected. NFL analysts, NFL scouts and NFL general managers all feel differently about each prospect.
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However, there’s usually a general acceptance of how good a prospect is. If everyone says a player is a third-round talent, then there’s likely some sort of truth to that. But sometimes those players analysts claim is a third-round talent ends up going in the first round, leaving many puzzled.
Below, we’ll break down some of the worst value picks from the 2020 NFL Draft based on pre-draft scouting reports. This doesn’t necessarily mean the player is bad, it just means the team who picked them likely reached with their selection.
We’ll be focusing more on the Day 1 and Day 2 picks considering those selections carry more weight. After a certain round, you’re not really losing much value with your draft picks because why not take a chance on that player in the sixth round?
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The worst value picks from the 2020 NFL Draft
Damon Arnette, Las Vegas Raiders, 19th overall
The Raiders went with Henry Ruggs earlier in the first round, which was a solid selection, but then made a head-scratching move picking Damon Arnette at 19 overall. FiveThirtyEight created a probability chart of every first round pick. The probability figures which players were likely to be taken in the draft before their actual selection. For instance, Tristan Wirfs was expected to go higher so his probability was high at 97.2%. Arnette finished with 0.0%.
“With several corners ranked higher on my board, I question the value for Las Vegas,” The Ringer’s Danny Kelly writes. After many labeled the move as a reach, Raiders GM Mike Mayock explicitly addressed that saying, “We feel like this is one of the most competitive players in the entire draft. We don’t feel like it was a reach.”
Arnette was 63rd overall on Arif Hasan’s big board, which combined the rankings of over 60 analysts.
Jordyn Brooks, Seattle Seahwks, 27th overall
The Seahawks surprisingly drafted linebacker Jordyn Brooks with the 27th overall pick in the draft. He received a 6.2 draft grade from NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein, which makes Brooks a “good backup who could become starter.” His draft projection was Round 2.
The Brooks selection had a flat 0.0% on FiveThirtyEight’s projection chart, and placed 84th overall on Arif Hasan’s consensus big board.
Making this pick even stranger is the fact Brooks was taken ahead of consensus first-round linebacker Patrick Queen. He’ll also be joining a Seahawks team that already has Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, a pair of very good linebackers.
Isaiah Wilson, Tennessee Titans, 29th overall
Wilson also finished with a 0.0% on FiveThirtyEight’s projection, one of just three players past pick 20 from the first round with that percentage. As several analysts noted, Wilson has some upside, but was projected to be more of a second-round pick than a first round.
ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper said Wilson “needed another year at Georgia” to work on some things. The Ringer’s Danny Kelly also agreed this was a reach by Tennessee.
“It’s a bit of a reach this early (he checked in at no. 61 on my Big Board), and the Titans are banking on his upside more than the player he is today, but he should slide in as Jack Conklin’s successor on the right side,” Kelly wrote.
Darrell Taylor, Seattle Seahawks, 48th overall
Seattle makes yet another appearance on this list, this time with defensive end Darrell Taylor. He was the third overall defensive end taken in the draft despite there being better options available. The Seahawks even traded up to select Taylor.
“This is too high for him,” ESPN’s Mel Kiper writes about Taylor. “He is my 12th-ranked defensive end and is No. 185 overall. We know Seattle wanted to add defensive linemen on Day 2, but there were better guys on the board, including A.J. Epenesa, Bradlee Anae and Jabari Zuniga.”
Taylor was 93rd overall in Hasan’s consensus big board, and 11th among defensive ends.
Josiah Deguara, Green Bay Packers, 94th overall
The Packers had a controversial NFL Draft after selecting Jordan Love in the first round and A.J. Dillon the second. While both picks were a little strange, they weren’t really bad value picks in terms of reaching for players. Josiah Deguara, however, does fit that description.
Deguara is a tight end from Cincinnati who was expected to be a Day 3 pick, and a late one at that. NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein had him projected for the sixth round. Deguara was 163rd on Hasan’s consensus big board, 10th among tight ends. Despite being the 10th overall tight end on the pre-draft big board, he was the third tight end selected in the draft.
Tanner Muse, Las Vegas Raiders, 100th overall
Las Vegas made Tanner Muse a third-round draft pick despite NFL.com listing him with a Round 6 projection.
Mykal Walker, Atlanta Falcons, 119th overall
Mykal Walker had the lowest NFL.com prospect grade among players selected in Rounds 1-4 (5.69). The linebacker had a sixth-round projection, and instead was an early fourth-round pick (13). NFL.com’s Chad Reuter projected Walker going in Round 7 of his NFL Mock Draft, 220th overall. CBS Sports’ R.J. White had Walker going undrafted completely in his NFL Mock Draft. Walker provided a need for Atlanta as a versatile linebacker, but most experts didn’t expect him to be selected so early.
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Justin Rohrwasser, New England Patriots, 159th overall
The Patriots made a controversial move by going kicker in the fifth round of the NFL Draft. I don’t necessarily hate going kicker here, but selecting Rohrwasser was an interesting move. The Athletic’s NFL Draft analyst Dane Brugler didn’t even list Rohrwasser in his top 10 list of kickers as part of his Draft Guide. And out of those 10 kickers, Brugler only had three with draftable grades.
NFL.com didn’t even have a prospect grade on him. Getting a kicker of the future makes sense for New England, but it’s entirely possible the Patriots could have added Rohrwasser as an undrafted free agent rather than a fifth-round draft pick.