It’s never easy to bet the NFL, and it feels a lot more difficult in Week 1. We don’t know anything about these teams yet. We know what we think we know, and we want to believe that what we think we know is real, but we won’t know until we know, you know? Thankfully we won’t have to wait much longer, as the NFL season kicks off Thursday night, and then gets underway for real on Sunday.

So what do I know heading into Week 1? I know that what I know is generally the same things everybody else knows and that I can use that to my advantage. It’s always going to be more challenging to beat the books than it will be to beat the public, so early in the season, I like to look for spots where I can take advantage of perceptions of teams compared to reality. For my first NFL picks column of the week, I’ve found two such games, as well as a play on a total I like.

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1. Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: Under 40.5

You know, for somebody with a reputation for being an offensive guru, Adam Gase’s offenses sure don’t seem to score a lot of points. At least, not when they’re being led by quarterbacks who aren’t named Peyton Manning. In 2015, when he was OC for the Chicago Bears, his offenses scored 20.9 points per game. The Dolphins scored 20.1 points per game in Gase’s three seasons in charge there. So where’s this guru stuff coming from?

It’s possible Gase now has the best QB he’s worked with since Manning in Sam Darnold, but Darnold’s not there yet, and the Jets will be facing what should be a tough Buffalo defense on Sunday. As for Buffalo’s offense, I don’t have much faith in a Josh Allen-led unit just yet, either. All of which leads me to believe we’re going to have a low-scoring slap fight on our hands here.

Prediction: Jets 21, Bills 16

2. Arizona Cardinals +2.5

Remember how everyone spent last season making fun of Matt Patricia and the Lions? Remember the talk this offseason about how Patricia might already be on the hot seat entering his second season? The Lions are a near-unanimous pick to finish last in the NFC North this season, so it only makes total sense that they open the season as road favorites!

The reason for it is that this will be Kliff Kingsbury’s first game in charge of the Cardinals, and he’s bringing that darned, gimmicky Air Raid offense of his that only works on the college level! Not in the NFL! Nevermind that the Packers and Patriots have been running a modified version of it for nearly a decade with Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers already. Listen, I’m not saying that Kingsbury and Kyler Murray are going to light up the NFL this season. In fact, I very much doubt that will be the case. But to be home dogs against a Lions team that didn’t show much of anything last year under Matt Patricia? I’ll take those points.

Prediction: Cardinals 24, Lions 21

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3. New York Giants +7.5

I don’t have many real go-tos when it comes to betting NFL games, but this is one of the ones I do have. Since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 15 games between division opponents in Week 1 of the season where the home team was favored. The road dog has gone 12-2-1 ATS in those 15 games. Now, one of the two teams that failed to cover was the Giants when they were six-point dogs against the Cowboys in Dallas to open the 2017 season, but I’m not worried about it.

This year the Cowboys will be breaking in a new play-caller on offense, and Ezekiel Elliott missed the entire preseason due to his holdout. I don’t know how much he’ll play in this game if he plays at all. Whatever Zeke’s status, I like getting the Giants with a touchdown and a hook here.

Prediction: Cowboys 24, Giants 17