NFL odds, picks for Week 12: Proven computer model loving Seahawks, Colts – CBSSports.com


The remaining Week 12 NFL schedule features a dozen games, and if you believe the latest NFL odds and spreads, several will be nail-biters. In Houston, the Texans host the division-rival Titans on Monday Night Football. We now know that Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota will start on Monday after suffering a neck injury. Money has been pouring in on the Titans as a result, dragging the line down from Houston -5.5 to -4. In what could be one of the highest-scoring NFL games of the week, the Buccaneers host the 49ers. The Bucs are favored by two in that matchup after the line opened at a field goal, one of the tightest NFL spreads of the week. The Over-Under for 49ers vs. Buccaneers stands at 54, down slightly from an open of 55.5, but still the highest on the remaining Week 12 NFL schedule. With NFL odds large and small to choose from, check out the latest Week 12 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model before locking in any plays of your own.

SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 12 on a blistering 12-0 run. For the season, it is now 26-9 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 74-43. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 105-53 this season, again ranking in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com. Anybody who has been following it is way, way up. 

Now it has examined the latest NFL odds and spreads, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its Week 12 NFL picks are in.

One of the top Week 12 NFL picks the model loves: the Seahawks cover (+3.5) on the road at Carolina. 

The Rams have taken a commanding lead in the NFC West, but the Seahawks (5-5) stayed afloat in the NFC Wild Card race with their huge win over the Packers last week. Now they meet up with the Panthers as the teams compete for playoff position.

According to the model, Russell Wilson throws for almost 250 yards, while Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny and the rest of Seattle’s backs pile up over 100 combined yards on the ground as the Seahawks cover in over 60 percent of simulations. You can confidently back the Over (47) as well because it hits in more than half of simulations.

Another one of the top Week 12 NFL predictions from the model: the Colts cover as 7.5-point favorites at home over the Dolphins. 

After Miami initially opened as a 10-point favorite, action on the Dolphins, due in large part to the return of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, has driven that line down by almost a field goal. However, that has created added value on a Colts play, according to the model, with Indy’s No. 5 scoring offense matching up well against a Miami defense that has been shelled for at least 27 points in six of their last seven games.

Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has been red-hot during the team’s four-game winning streak, throwing for 13 touchdowns against just one interception during that span and completing 74 percent of his passes. The SportsLine Projection Model expects that trend to continue, with Luck’s 300-plus yards passing and three touchdowns helping Indianapolis cover in over 55 percent of simulations. For added value, the Over (51) is also hitting nearly 65 percent of the time.

The model has has a strong pick for the AFC battle between the Steelers and Broncos, and is also calling for a Super Bowl contender to get a huge scare in Week 12. 

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 12? And which Super Bowl contender gets a huge scare? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (+3, 37)
Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-11, 42.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2, 54)
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-5, 48)
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-1, 46.5)  
New England Patriots at New York Jets (+10.5, 46.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 46)
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers (-13.5, 43.5)
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5, 52)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (+3, 47.5)
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 47.5)
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-4, 41.5)

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